Game 25 - 4/29/2007

Royals 1, Mariners 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 8-17
Expected Record 9-16
Runs Scored 98
Runs Allowed 129
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.365

Let's go get 'em

Game 24 - 4/28/2007

Royals 8, Mariners 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 8-16
Expected Record 9-15
Runs Scored 97
Runs Allowed 124
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.379

Let's go get 'em

Game 23 - 4/27/2007

Royals 4, Mariners 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 7-16
Expected Record 8-15
Runs Scored 89
Runs Allowed 121
Projected Record 50-112
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.351

Let's go get 'em

Game 22 - 4/26/2007

Royals 0, Twins 1

The Royals stranded 14 runners but couldn't get any of those across. Their best chance seemed to be in the 10th when Ross Gload was at second with 2 out. Alex Gordon singled to right but third base coach Brian Poldberg held Gload at third instead of trying to score him. John Buck then grounded out to end the inning.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 7-15
Expected Record 8-14
Runs Scored 85
Runs Allowed 114
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.357

Let's go get 'em

Game 21 - 4/25/2007

Royals 4, Twins 3

This cracked me up: Jimmy Gobble came into the game, and Paul Splittorf started talking about how Gobble had been working on a side arm delivery. He said that it would probably take 2 or 3 years before Gobble would use that delivery in game action. As soon as those words left his mouth, Gobble threw a side armed pitch for a strike.

Of course then Splitt tried to redeem himself by stating that it may be difficult to control his pitches if he switches between side arm and over the top. Gobble then walked the batter. Oh well.

The rest of the bullpen did its job in holding onto a tight lead. Is Soria for real, or with that balloon burst one of these days? Odalis looked much better tonight, so here's hoping he gets back on track.

Can we play all our games against the Twins?

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 7-14
Expected Record 8-13
Runs Scored 85
Runs Allowed 113
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 20 - 4/24/2007

White Sox 9, Royals 7

Lots of rain + crappy pitching = another loss...

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 6-14
Expected Record 7-13
Runs Scored 81
Runs Allowed 110
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.351

Let's go get 'em

Game 19 - 4/23/2007

White Sox 7, Royals 4

What an irritating night. Everytime the Royals got a lead, they gave it right back in the next inning. Then, the bullpen just looked awful, soiling a decent outing by Gil Meche.

To make things worse, the Royals radio network had issues with audio replays being heard over the commercials and even over the Denny and Ryan as they annouced the game. I can understand this accidentally happening at first, but it went on all night!

About the only good thing about this game was watching as ex-Royal Andrew Sisco completely fail to throw strikes; the very reason the Royals bailed on him in the off-season.

Esteban German continues to amaze at the plate. Bell needs to find more at-bats for German. John Buck is making it hard to justify the playing time that Jason LaRue has been getting.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 6-13
Expected Record 7-12
Runs Scored 74
Runs Allowed 101
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.349

Let's go get 'em

Game 18 - 4/22/2007

Twins 1, Royals 3

Jorge De La Rosa turned in a spectacular pitching performance as the Royals shut down the Twins on a very windy day. The Royals have now won 3 of their last 4 are are looking much better.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 6-12
Expected Record 6-12
Runs Scored 70
Runs Allowed 94
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356

Let's go get 'em

Game 17 - 4/21/2007

Twins 5, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 5-12
Expected Record 6-11
Runs Scored 67
Runs Allowed 93
Projected Record 48-114
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.341

Let's go get 'em

Game 16 - 4/20/2007

Twins 7, Royals 11

The bats finally started coming alive for the Royals. Let's hope those sub-200 averages start to climb as the weather warms up.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 5-11
Expected Record 5-11
Runs Scored 62
Runs Allowed 86
Projected Record 51-111
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.341

Let's go get 'em

Game 15 - 4/18/2007

Royals 4, Tigers 3

This is why the Royals paid all that money for Gil Meche. Meche was great today, even though he did give up 3 unearned runs. He pitched 8 innings and shut down the Tigers to give his team a chance to win and bust their losing streak. So far, he's validating Dayton Moore's decision.

Kudos to John Buck who seems to be responding to the competition of having Jason LaRue right behind him. He's hitting well so far, and won the game today with a 10th inning homer. It sure feels good to win.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 4-11
Expected Record 4-11
Runs Scored 51
Runs Allowed 79
Projected Record 44-118
Pythagorean Record 48-114
Pythagorean Winning% 0.294

Let's go get 'em

Game 14 - 4/17/2007

Royals 6, Tigers 7

David DeJesus had a four hit night. That's all I can muster tonight.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-11
Expected Record 4-10
Runs Scored 47
Runs Allowed 76
Projected Record 35-127
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.276

Let's go get 'em

Game 13 - 4/16/2007

Royals 5, Tigers 12

What an embarrassment! What are the Royals thinking? Jason LaRue at third base? Alex Gordon at short? Tony Pena at second?

Why did the Royals get caught in this situation? If a player is hurt (Grudz), put him on the DL and get someone in here to play second.

Frustrating.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-10
Expected Record 3-10
Runs Scored 41
Runs Allowed 69
Projected Record 38-124
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.26

Let's go get 'em

Game 13 - 4/15/2007

Good news! The Royals didn't lose. Of course, they didn't win either and the rain prevailed.

Game 12 - 4/14/2007

Royals 4, Orioles 6

Morpheus says that a deja vu is a disturbance in the Matrix. Consider the Matrix disturbed. Within a span of about 3 minutes, the Royals watched a popup drop between them, and then gave up a grand slam, propelling them to their fourth straight loss. It looks like 2006 all over again. Or, for that matter, 2005 or 2004.

Awful Aprils are becoming the hallmark of this team. It's no wonder they continually lose 100 games when they continually get off to such dismal starts.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-9
Expected Record 3-9
Runs Scored 36
Runs Allowed 57
Projected Record 41-121
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.285

Let's go get 'em

Game 11 - 4/13/2007

Royals 1, Orioles 8

Debilitating injuries (Octavio Dotel), late inning pitching collapses (David Riske), and enemic offense (Alex Gordon). This season is starting to look far too much like seasons past. Let's just hope this small sample size stays small.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-8
Expected Record 3-8
Runs Scored 32
Runs Allowed 51
Projected Record 45-117
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.282

Let's go get 'em

Game 10 - 4/12/2007

Royals 1, Orioles 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-7
Expected Record 3-7
Runs Scored 31
Runs Allowed 43
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.341

Let's go get 'em

Game 9 - 4/11/2007

Royals 4, Blue Jays 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-6
Expected Record 3-6
Runs Scored 30
Runs Allowed 41
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.348

Let's go get 'em

Game 8 - 4/10/2007

Royals 6, Blue Jays 3

The Royals bounced back after two very disappointing games - a blown save and a rout - to get a solid 6-3 win over the Blue Jays.

Zach Greinke had his second straight impressive outing, holding the Jays to 1 run on 6 hits over 6 innings. More importantly, he struck out 5 with no walks. In fact, Royals pitchers gave up no walks at all.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-5
Expected Record 3-5
Runs Scored 26
Runs Allowed 34
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368

Let's go get 'em

Game 7 - 4/9/2007

Royals 1, Blue Jays 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-5
Expected Record 2-5
Runs Scored 20
Runs Allowed 31
Projected Record 47-115
Pythagorean Record 48-114
Pythagorean Winning% 0.293

Let's go get 'em

Game 6 - 4/8/2007

Tigers 3, Royals 2

Blown saves. The Royals had an amazing 31 of them in 2006. This, obviously, is an area that needed much improvement. Dayton Moore signed Octovial Dotel to fill that role and reverse that trend.
Unfortunately, we heard on the way to the Opening Day game that Dotel had a strained oblique and he was later put on the DL. Setup man David Riske is handling the closing duties until Dotel's return. Riske notched his first save on Friday night, but couldn't record his second on Easter Sunday.
After Brandon Duckworth pitched an absolute gem, keeping the Tigers scoreless, Riske entered the ninth to complete the win. He gave up a double to Ordonez, then a walk and then a homerun to Pudge Rodrigez to give the Tigers the lead, and eventually the win.
Losing the game is somewhat heart breaking, but it is much more encouraging to see the starting pitching continue to be so strong.
Duckworth gave up only 4 hits with one walk and a strike out. He handed the shut out over to Gobble and Soria who each did their part. Too bad Riske couldn't complete the job.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-4
Expected Record 3-3
Runs Scored 19
Runs Allowed 22
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 70-92
Pythagorean Winning% 0.427

Let's go get 'em

Game 5 - 4/7/2007

Tigers 6, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-3
Expected Record 2-3
Runs Scored 17
Runs Allowed 19
Projected Record 65-97
Pythagorean Record 72-90
Pythagorean Winning% 0.444

Let's go get 'em

Game 4 - 4/6/2007

Tigers 1, Royals 3

The Royals' run of impressive starting pitching continued on a frigid night as the Royals beat the Tigers 3-1. Royals starter Jorge De La Rosa pitched 7 strong innings giving up 4 hits and 1 earned run. He walked 3 and struck out 5.

Overall, Royals starters had done well:

Starter	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	Result
Meche	7.1	6	1	1	6	W,7-1
Perez	5.1	5	4	3	3	L,7-1
Greinke	7	8	1	1	7	L,4-1
De La Rosa	7	4	1	3	5	W,3-1
Totals	26.2	23	7	8	21	-

This is a huge improvement over 2006, when the starters for the first 4 games looked like this:

Starter	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	Result
Elarton	5.2	7	2	3	3	L,3-1
Mays	4.1	8	6	1	2	L,14-3
Affeldt	4	7	6	2	2	W,11-7
Bautista	6	1	1	5	5	W,4-3
Totals	20	23	15	11	12	-

It's encouraging to see the runs and walks reduced, while innings and strike-outs have increased. The Royals' pitching was so awful last year that new GM Dayton Moore completely revamped the staff, retaining only Jimmy Gobble from 2006's opening day roster. Let's hope this improved pitching continues with Saturday's game, which features Gil Meche facing Mike Maroth.

It probably isn't fair to compare Tony Pena Jr's performance with Angel Berroa's 2006 performance, but it is fun to see that Pena has already tripled Berroa's triple total (Pena has 3 in 4 games; Berroa had 1 all year).

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-2
Expected Record 2-2
Runs Scored 12
Runs Allowed 13
Projected Record 81-81
Pythagorean Record 75-87
Pythagorean Winning% 0.46

Let's go get 'em

Game 3 - 4/5/2007

Red Sox 4, Royals 1

Daisuke Matsuzaka lived up to the hype in his debut against the Royals. Dice-K struck out 10 and had the Royals hitters off balance all day. The only run he gave up was on a 6th inning homerun by David DeJesus.

Zack Greinke, meanwhile, also pitched well in his first start since 2005. Greinke pitched 7 innings, giving up 8 hits and 1 earned run. Most importantly, he walked only one while striking out 7.

Things unraveled for the Royals in the 8th, when Joel Peralta entered the game in relief of Greinke. Peralta gave up three hits, but Gordon committed an error on an easy ground ball off the bat of Mike Lowell that rolled between his legs and into left field. The Sox scored 2 runs (1 earned) in the inning, pushing their 1 run lead to a 3 run lead.

Matsuzaka left after seven innings and the Royals went quietly in the 8th and 9th, giving the Red Sox a 4-1 win and a 2-1 series win.

The Tigers will come to KC tomorrow night, and Breaking 100 will be there.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 1-2
Expected Record 1-2
Runs Scored 9
Runs Allowed 12
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.360

Let's go get 'em

Fallen Angel

Please check out Dan Fox's column on the decline of Angel Berroa at Baseball Prospectus (subscription required, but well worth the money).

Dan has more info at his blog.

Game 2 - 4/4/2007

Red Sox 7, Royals 1

The Sox turned the tables on the Royals on a cold, blustery Wednesday night.

Royals starter Odalis Perez struggled early, giving up 3 runs in the first inning. He settled down after that, but seemed to tire as the game progressed.

Perez' last couple of spring starts were cut short because of blister problems on his pitching hand. Perez wasn't able to stretch out his outings, which probably hurt his conditioning. The cold weather probably didn't help much either.

Off Topic... The Mets seem to have the Cardinals' number here in 2007, don't they?

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 1-1
Expected Record 1-1
Runs Scored 8
Runs Allowed 8
Projected Record 81-81
Pythagorean Record 81-81
Pythagorean Winning% 0.500

Let's go get 'em

Game 1 - 4/2/2007

Red Sox 1, Royals 7

It was a beautiful day in so many ways. The weather was perfect, and the Royals had an outstanding game to open the 2007 season.

Check out some of these stats:
Gil Meche - 7.1 IP, 6 Hits, 1 Run, 1 BB, 6 SO
Mark Grudzielanek - 3-5, 3 RBI, 2B
Mark Teahen - 2-4, 1 RBI
Joel Peralta - 1.2 IP, 2 Hits, 0 BB, 4 SO

Royals pitchers did a great job of containing the formidable Red Sox lineup, and the Royals were able to string together timely hitting. It was a great game on all counts.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 1-0
Expected Record 1-0
Runs Scored 7
Runs Allowed 1
Projected Record 162-0
Pythagorean Record 159-3
Pythagorean Winning% 0.98

Let's go get 'em

Opening Day

Opening Day is a big deal in KC. Kauffman Stadium will be packed, one of the few times each year that the stadium is filled to capacity with Royals fans (as opposed to it begin filled with Cardinals fans). Local news channels are broadcasting live from the stadium.

And God has ordered up a perfect, 80 degree day.

After today, the Royals will project to be either 162-0 or 0-162. Either way, it doesn't matter does it? We love Opening Day.