Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Game 92 - 7/16/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 39-53
Expected Record 42-50
Runs Scored 415
Runs Allowed 456
Projected Record 69-93
Pythagorean Record 74-88
Pythagorean Winning% 0.453
Let's go get 'em
Game 91 - 7/15/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 39-52
Expected Record 42-49
Runs Scored 415
Runs Allowed 452
Projected Record 70-92
Pythagorean Record 75-87
Pythagorean Winning% 0.457
Let's go get 'em
Game 90 - 7/14/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 39-51
Expected Record 41-49
Runs Scored 412
Runs Allowed 447
Projected Record 71-91
Pythagorean Record 75-87
Pythagorean Winning% 0.459
Let's go get 'em
Game 89 - 7/13/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-51
Expected Record 41-48
Runs Scored 406
Runs Allowed 442
Projected Record 70-92
Pythagorean Record 75-87
Pythagorean Winning% 0.457
Let's go get 'em
Game 88 - 7/8/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-50
Expected Record 40-48
Runs Scored 402
Runs Allowed 437
Projected Record 70-92
Pythagorean Record 75-87
Pythagorean Winning% 0.458
Let's go get 'em
Game 87 - 7/7/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-50
Expected Record 39-48
Runs Scored 390
Runs Allowed 433
Projected Record 69-93
Pythagorean Record 73-89
Pythagorean Winning% 0.447
Let's go get 'em
Game 86 - 7/6/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 36-50
Expected Record 38-48
Runs Scored 382
Runs Allowed 426
Projected Record 68-94
Pythagorean Record 73-89
Pythagorean Winning% 0.445
Let's go get 'em
Thursday, July 05, 2007
Game 85 - 7/4/2007
Dang, Brian Bannister pitched a helluva game - AFTER the first inning. Unfortunately, Seattle's Jared Washburn also pitched a helluva game, but he did it from the get go. The Mariners were able to get 4 runs in the top of the first, and that was it.
To make things even more frustrating, the fireworks show fizzled. Ah well... The Royals still continue to show improvement, which is nice.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 36-49
Expected Record 38-47
Runs Scored 377
Runs Allowed 420
Projected Record 69-93
Pythagorean Record 73-89
Pythagorean Winning% 0.446
Let's go get 'em
Game 84 - 7/3/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 36-48
Expected Record 38-46
Runs Scored 377
Runs Allowed 416
Projected Record 70-92
Pythagorean Record 73-89
Pythagorean Winning% 0.45
Let's go get 'em
Tuesday, July 03, 2007
Game 83 - 7/2/2007
Mariners 2, Royals 3
We are officially past the halfway point of the season, and the Royals are on track to break 100. Their poor start is unfortunate, since they have played so well over the past month or so. The biggest impact right now seems to be the bullpen (shock!).
Questions to ponder for the second half:
- Will the Royals leave Grienke in the 'pen?
- Will Grienke go back to the rotation?
- Will Grienke become the close?
- If so, what happens to Dotel?
- Will the Royals ever settle on a first baseman?
- What will they do with all the DH's when Sweeney returns?
- Is Moore pondering any big trades?
- Is Moore pondering a managerial change?
- Will Alex Gordon continue to mash?
It will be fun to watch!!!
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-48
Expected Record 36-47
Runs Scored 360
Runs Allowed 413
Projected Record 69-93
Pythagorean Record 70-92
Pythagorean Winning% 0.431
Let's go get 'em
Game 82 - 7/1/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-48
Expected Record 35-47
Runs Scored 357
Runs Allowed 411
Projected Record 68-94
Pythagorean Record 70-92
Pythagorean Winning% 0.43
Let's go get 'em
Game 81 - 6/30/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-47
Expected Record 35-46
Runs Scored 356
Runs Allowed 408
Projected Record 68-94
Pythagorean Record 70-92
Pythagorean Winning% 0.432
Let's go get 'em
Game 80 - 6/29/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-46
Expected Record 35-45
Runs Scored 355
Runs Allowed 405
Projected Record 69-93
Pythagorean Record 71-91
Pythagorean Winning% 0.434
Let's go get 'em
Game 79 - 6/27/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 33-46
Expected Record 33-46
Runs Scored 347
Runs Allowed 404
Projected Record 68-94
Pythagorean Record 69-93
Pythagorean Winning% 0.424
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Game 78 - 6/26/2007
I'm heading out of town today, so I probably won't be able to update Breaking 100 until after the weekend homestand against the White Sox. Hopefully by then, we can say that the Royals are NOT in last place!
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-46
Expected Record 33-45
Runs Scored 346
Runs Allowed 404
Projected Record 67-95
Pythagorean Record 69-93
Pythagorean Winning% 0.423
Let's go get 'em
Game 77 - 6/25/2007
Nice start by super-sub John Thomson. Thomson was signed in desparation after Elarton
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-46
Expected Record 32-45
Runs Scored 334
Runs Allowed 400
Projected Record 66-96
Pythagorean Record 67-95
Pythagorean Winning% 0.41
Let's go get 'em
Monday, June 25, 2007
Game 76 - 6/24/2007
So, what is the story exactly with the Milton Bradley trade? I'm not sure why Dayton Moore would want yet another outfielder since the Royals already have a glut of outfielders (Reggie Sanders, Emil Brown, Mark Teahen, Ross Gload, David DeJesus, Joey Gathright, Billy Butler, Shane Costa, etc.) But Joe Posnanski had a good theory on this, perhaps Moore was sending a signal to his team that he is tired of seeing them play poorly. The trade didn't work out, but perhaps it will light a fire under the Royals. They certainly need it.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 30-46
Expected Record 31-45
Runs Scored 329
Runs Allowed 397
Projected Record 64-98
Pythagorean Record 66-96
Pythagorean Winning% 0.407
Let's go get 'em
Game 75 - 6/23/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 29-46
Expected Record 30-45
Runs Scored 325
Runs Allowed 394
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 66-96
Pythagorean Winning% 0.404
Let's go get 'em
Game 74 - 6/22/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 29-45
Expected Record 30-44
Runs Scored 324
Runs Allowed 387
Projected Record 64-98
Pythagorean Record 67-95
Pythagorean Winning% 0.412
Let's go get 'em
Friday, June 22, 2007
Game 73 - 6/20/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 29-44
Expected Record 30-43
Runs Scored 318
Runs Allowed 376
Projected Record 65-97
Pythagorean Record 68-94
Pythagorean Winning% 0.417
Let's go get 'em
Game 72 - 6/19/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 29-43
Expected Record 30-42
Runs Scored 312
Runs Allowed 369
Projected Record 66-96
Pythagorean Record 68-94
Pythagorean Winning% 0.416
Let's go get 'em
Monday, June 18, 2007
Game 71 - 6/18/2007
Wow! Did you see that play by Alex Gordon at third. That was sick.
Good to see Perez pitch better, and the bullpen continued its solid pitching.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 29-42
Expected Record 30-41
Runs Scored 311
Runs Allowed 364
Projected Record 67-95
Pythagorean Record 69-93
Pythagorean Winning% 0.421
Let's go get 'em
Breaking 100: Bring on the Seniors
Hopefully, this isn't just because of their dominance over the National League, but yet more an indication that the team is improving.
They have a few more Interleague games to go, so hopefully the improvement will continue.
Game 70 - 6/17/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 28-42
Expected Record 29-41
Runs Scored 306
Runs Allowed 361
Projected Record 65-97
Pythagorean Record 68-94
Pythagorean Winning% 0.418
Let's go get 'em
Game 69 - 6/16/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 27-42
Expected Record 29-40
Runs Scored 301
Runs Allowed 357
Projected Record 64-98
Pythagorean Record 68-94
Pythagorean Winning% 0.415
Let's go get 'em
Game 68 - 6/15/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 27-41
Expected Record 28-40
Runs Scored 293
Runs Allowed 348
Projected Record 65-97
Pythagorean Record 68-94
Pythagorean Winning% 0.414
Let's go get 'em
Game 67 - 6/14/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 26-41
Expected Record 27-40
Runs Scored 287
Runs Allowed 346
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 66-96
Pythagorean Winning% 0.407
Let's go get 'em
Game 66 - 6/13/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 25-41
Expected Record 26-40
Runs Scored 270
Runs Allowed 338
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 64-98
Pythagorean Winning% 0.389
Let's go get 'em
Game 65 - 6/12/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 25-40
Expected Record 26-39
Runs Scored 267
Runs Allowed 331
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 64-98
Pythagorean Winning% 0.394
Let's go get 'em
Game 64 - 6/10/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 24-40
Expected Record 24-40
Runs Scored 259
Runs Allowed 330
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.381
Let's go get 'em
Game 63 - 6/9/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-40
Expected Record 22-41
Runs Scored 242
Runs Allowed 325
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356
Let's go get 'em
Game 62 - 6/8/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-39
Expected Record 22-40
Runs Scored 242
Runs Allowed 321
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.362
Let's go get 'em
Game 61 - 6/7/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 22-39
Expected Record 21-40
Runs Scored 234
Runs Allowed 317
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.352
Let's go get 'em
Game 60 - 6/6/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 22-38
Expected Record 21-39
Runs Scored 231
Runs Allowed 309
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.358
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Game 59 - 6/5/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-38
Expected Record 21-38
Runs Scored 227
Runs Allowed 306
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.354
Let's go get 'em
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Game 58 - 6/4/2007
I'm beginning to think I'm just weird. Am I the only person who is bothered by the rotating announcers on Royals radio and TV broadcasts? Maybe it wouldn't bother me so much if the announcers they used weren't so awful. I respect Brian McRae and I know he has a great deal of knowledge and experience in baseball, but the guy can't talk. And Bob Davis is just this side of fingernails on a chalk board. My wife says I'm getting grumpy in my old age. Maybe so. What do you think?
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-37
Expected Record 21-37
Runs Scored 227
Runs Allowed 305
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356
Let's go get 'em
Monday, June 04, 2007
Game 57 - 6/3/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-36
Expected Record 20-37
Runs Scored 225
Runs Allowed 301
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.358
Let's go get 'em
Game 56 - 6/2/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-35
Expected Record 20-36
Runs Scored 224
Runs Allowed 296
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.364
Let's go get 'em
Game 55 - 6/1/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 20-35
Expected Record 19-36
Runs Scored 215
Runs Allowed 292
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.351
Let's go get 'em
Game 54 - 5/30/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-35
Expected Record 19-35
Runs Scored 211
Runs Allowed 291
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.344
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Game 53 - 5/29/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-34
Expected Record 18-35
Runs Scored 211
Runs Allowed 288
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.349
Let's go get 'em
Monday, May 28, 2007
Game 52 - 5/28/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-33
Expected Record 18-34
Runs Scored 209
Runs Allowed 282
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.354
Let's go get 'em
Game 51 - 5/27/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-32
Expected Record 19-32
Runs Scored 208
Runs Allowed 273
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.367
Let's go get 'em
Game 50 - 5/26/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-31
Expected Record 19-31
Runs Scored 204
Runs Allowed 266
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37
Let's go get 'em
Game 49 - 5/25/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-30
Expected Record 19-30
Runs Scored 203
Runs Allowed 257
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.384
Let's go get 'em
Game 48 - 5/24/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-29
Expected Record 19-29
Runs Scored 201
Runs Allowed 247
Projected Record 65-97
Pythagorean Record 65-97
Pythagorean Winning% 0.398
Let's go get 'em
Game 47 - 5/23/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-28
Expected Record 19-28
Runs Scored 198
Runs Allowed 237
Projected Record 66-96
Pythagorean Record 67-95
Pythagorean Winning% 0.411
Let's go get 'em
Game 46 - 5/22/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 18-28
Expected Record 18-28
Runs Scored 187
Runs Allowed 230
Projected Record 64-98
Pythagorean Record 65-97
Pythagorean Winning% 0.397
Let's go get 'em
Sunday, May 20, 2007
Game 45 - 5/20/2007
Wow! What a great road trip for the Royals. Could this be the beginning of the great turnaround?
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 17-28
Expected Record 18-27
Runs Scored 183
Runs Allowed 227
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 64-98
Pythagorean Winning% 0.393
Let's go get 'em
Game 44 - 5/19/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-28
Expected Record 17-27
Runs Scored 173
Runs Allowed 222
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.377
Let's go get 'em
Game 43 - 5/18/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-27
Expected Record 16-27
Runs Scored 169
Runs Allowed 216
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.379
Let's go get 'em
Friday, May 18, 2007
Breaking 100: An Improving Team
You may have noticed the Breaking 100 Trend (which is a season projection based on the last 15 games) has turned into a green up arrow. Consider these facts from today's Kansas City Star:
- The Royals are 4-1 since Sunday this week.
- The Royals have outscored their opponents 28-14 this week.
- The Royals won 27% of their total victories this week (four of 15).
- It's been 35 weeks since the Royals last won four games in a week.
- It's been 85 weeks since the Royals last won a four game series.
Hopefully this isn't just a result of playing the A's, but rather the result of some improvement on the part of the Royals. Certainly the pitching has been adequate, and now the offense is beginning to show signs of improvement. It will be fun to watch what happens at Coors Field this weekend.
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Game 42 - 5/17/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 15-27
Expected Record 15-27
Runs Scored 164
Runs Allowed 214
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369
Let's go get 'em
Game 41 - 5/16/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 14-27
Expected Record 15-26
Runs Scored 157
Runs Allowed 210
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.358
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Game 40 - 5/15/2007
Sorry for the delays in keeping this thing updated. Work has become very busy and the Royals, frankly, haven't been very interesting.
We are now 40 games into the season. Earier in the year, Dayton Moore had said that he wouldn't make any judgements on any players until 40 games. A couple of things are pretty clear to me at this point:
Alex Gordon needs to go to Omaha. He still looks lost at the plate. Give him some time at AAA to get his stroke back, then call him back up. This is probably doing more damage than good right now.
Buddy Bell needs to be fired. I'm so tired of these inexplicible moves. Billy Butler was brought up to "play every day," and "spark our offense." He's been on the bench for a week. I'm sick of seeing players play out of position. We have catchers playing third, third basemen playing short and first, and infielders playing outfield. This all seemed to start back in the Tony Pena days when Desi Relaford was playing left field. I'm sure it's not helping the young players like Butler and Gordon to have to deal with changing positions while they try to learn to hit in the big leagues.
To make things worse, Bell does not know how to use his players. In last night's game - a close game in the late innings that the Royals tied in the ninth, we somehow ended up with our best hitter (John Buck) on the bench. Of all the players to sub out, he picks Buck? Buck is the only hitter in the lineup who is hitting the ball hard. And with two right handed hitters on the bench, Bell left the struggling, left handed hitter Gordon in the game to face a nasty lefty sidearm pitcher. It makes no sense at all.
It is frustrating to see the Royals players stuggle. Let's face it, we have some talent, but not as much talent as most other teams. But the stupid managerial moves are turning an 85 loss team into a 100 loss team. Bell's gotta go.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 13-27
Expected Record 14-26
Runs Scored 153
Runs Allowed 207
Projected Record 53-109
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.353
Let's go get 'em
Game 39 - 5/14/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 13-26
Expected Record 14-25
Runs Scored 149
Runs Allowed 202
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.352
Let's go get 'em
Game 38 - 5/13/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 12-26
Expected Record 13-25
Runs Scored 147
Runs Allowed 201
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.348
Let's go get 'em
Game 37 - 5/12/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-26
Expected Record 12-25
Runs Scored 136
Runs Allowed 200
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 52-110
Pythagorean Winning% 0.316
Let's go get 'em
Game 36 - 5/11/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-25
Expected Record 11-25
Runs Scored 132
Runs Allowed 195
Projected Record 50-112
Pythagorean Record 51-111
Pythagorean Winning% 0.314
Let's go get 'em
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Game 35 - 5/10/2007
Oh boy. Has anybody else noticed how terribly the Royals play on get-away days? Sheesh!
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-24
Expected Record 11-24
Runs Scored 131
Runs Allowed 193
Projected Record 51-111
Pythagorean Record 52-110
Pythagorean Winning% 0.315
Let's go get 'em
Game 34 - 5/9/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-23
Expected Record 12-22
Runs Scored 128
Runs Allowed 176
Projected Record 53-109
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.345
Let's go get 'em
Game 33 - 5/8/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-23
Expected Record 11-22
Runs Scored 125
Runs Allowed 174
Projected Record 50-112
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.34
Let's go get 'em
Monday, May 07, 2007
Game 32 - 5/6/2007
How in the world did they get that game in with all the rain???
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-22
Expected Record 11-21
Runs Scored 124
Runs Allowed 168
Projected Record 51-111
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.352
Let's go get 'em
Game 31 - 5/5/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-21
Expected Record 12-19
Runs Scored 120
Runs Allowed 155
Projected Record 53-109
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.374
Let's go get 'em
Game 30 - 5/4/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-20
Expected Record 11-19
Runs Scored 115
Runs Allowed 148
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.376
Let's go get 'em
Game 29 - 5/3/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-19
Expected Record 11-18
Runs Scored 112
Runs Allowed 142
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.383
Let's go get 'em
Thursday, May 03, 2007
Game 28 - 5/2/2007
The highlight of the game? Me snagging a foul ball off the bat of Mark Teahen (off the bounce) as we huddled under the overhang down the third base line to get out of the rain. Oh, and German's three run homer to win it. That was good too.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 9-19
Expected Record 10-18
Runs Scored 107
Runs Allowed 140
Projected Record 53-109
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Game 27 - 5/1/2007
If it's not one thing, it's another. The starting pitching for the Royals has been much better this season. In fact, the starters have been very encouraging, but the Royals have suffered with terrible offense.
To spark plug the offense, the Royals called up Billy Butler from AAA Omaha. Butler represents the Royals' best hitting prospect in years. He is a line drive hitter with power - a true RBI type hitter. He lived up to expectations in his debut, going 2-4.
But, in true Royals fashion, the starting pitching struggled. Zack Greinke gave up three singles followed by a grand slam, putting the Royals in a 4-0 hole before the first out had been recorded.
If the rain holds off today, we will be there to witness Butler's second day in the big leagues.
You will notice that the Breaking 100 trend has turned to green. Based on the Royals' last 15 games, they are projected to finish 66-96, breaking the 100 lost barrier.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 8-19
Expected Record 10-17
Runs Scored 104
Runs Allowed 139
Projected Record 48-114
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.358
Let's go get 'em
Game 26 - 4/30/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 8-18
Expected Record 9-17
Runs Scored 99
Runs Allowed 132
Projected Record 50-112
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.36
Let's go get 'em
Monday, April 30, 2007
Game 25 - 4/29/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 8-17
Expected Record 9-16
Runs Scored 98
Runs Allowed 129
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.365
Let's go get 'em
Game 24 - 4/28/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 8-16
Expected Record 9-15
Runs Scored 97
Runs Allowed 124
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.379
Let's go get 'em
Game 23 - 4/27/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 7-16
Expected Record 8-15
Runs Scored 89
Runs Allowed 121
Projected Record 50-112
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.351
Let's go get 'em
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Game 22 - 4/26/2007
The Royals stranded 14 runners but couldn't get any of those across. Their best chance seemed to be in the 10th when Ross Gload was at second with 2 out. Alex Gordon singled to right but third base coach Brian Poldberg held Gload at third instead of trying to score him. John Buck then grounded out to end the inning.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 7-15
Expected Record 8-14
Runs Scored 85
Runs Allowed 114
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.357
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Game 21 - 4/25/2007
This cracked me up: Jimmy Gobble came into the game, and Paul Splittorf started talking about how Gobble had been working on a side arm delivery. He said that it would probably take 2 or 3 years before Gobble would use that delivery in game action. As soon as those words left his mouth, Gobble threw a side armed pitch for a strike.
Of course then Splitt tried to redeem himself by stating that it may be difficult to control his pitches if he switches between side arm and over the top. Gobble then walked the batter. Oh well.
The rest of the bullpen did its job in holding onto a tight lead. Is Soria for real, or with that balloon burst one of these days? Odalis looked much better tonight, so here's hoping he gets back on track.
Can we play all our games against the Twins?
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 7-14
Expected Record 8-13
Runs Scored 85
Runs Allowed 113
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361
Let's go get 'em
Game 20 - 4/24/2007
Lots of rain + crappy pitching = another loss...
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 6-14
Expected Record 7-13
Runs Scored 81
Runs Allowed 110
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.351
Let's go get 'em
Monday, April 23, 2007
Game 19 - 4/23/2007
What an irritating night. Everytime the Royals got a lead, they gave it right back in the next inning. Then, the bullpen just looked awful, soiling a decent outing by Gil Meche.
To make things worse, the Royals radio network had issues with audio replays being heard over the commercials and even over the Denny and Ryan as they annouced the game. I can understand this accidentally happening at first, but it went on all night!
About the only good thing about this game was watching as ex-Royal Andrew Sisco completely fail to throw strikes; the very reason the Royals bailed on him in the off-season.
Esteban German continues to amaze at the plate. Bell needs to find more at-bats for German. John Buck is making it hard to justify the playing time that Jason LaRue has been getting.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 6-13
Expected Record 7-12
Runs Scored 74
Runs Allowed 101
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.349
Let's go get 'em
Sunday, April 22, 2007
Game 18 - 4/22/2007
Jorge De La Rosa turned in a spectacular pitching performance as the Royals shut down the Twins on a very windy day. The Royals have now won 3 of their last 4 are are looking much better.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 6-12
Expected Record 6-12
Runs Scored 70
Runs Allowed 94
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356
Let's go get 'em
Game 17 - 4/21/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 5-12
Expected Record 6-11
Runs Scored 67
Runs Allowed 93
Projected Record 48-114
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.341
Let's go get 'em
Game 16 - 4/20/2007
The bats finally started coming alive for the Royals. Let's hope those sub-200 averages start to climb as the weather warms up.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 5-11
Expected Record 5-11
Runs Scored 62
Runs Allowed 86
Projected Record 51-111
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.341
Let's go get 'em
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Game 15 - 4/18/2007
This is why the Royals paid all that money for Gil Meche. Meche was great today, even though he did give up 3 unearned runs. He pitched 8 innings and shut down the Tigers to give his team a chance to win and bust their losing streak. So far, he's validating Dayton Moore's decision.
Kudos to John Buck who seems to be responding to the competition of having Jason LaRue right behind him. He's hitting well so far, and won the game today with a 10th inning homer. It sure feels good to win.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 4-11
Expected Record 4-11
Runs Scored 51
Runs Allowed 79
Projected Record 44-118
Pythagorean Record 48-114
Pythagorean Winning% 0.294
Let's go get 'em
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Game 14 - 4/17/2007
David DeJesus had a four hit night. That's all I can muster tonight.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-11
Expected Record 4-10
Runs Scored 47
Runs Allowed 76
Projected Record 35-127
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.276
Let's go get 'em
Monday, April 16, 2007
Game 13 - 4/16/2007
What an embarrassment! What are the Royals thinking? Jason LaRue at third base? Alex Gordon at short? Tony Pena at second?
Why did the Royals get caught in this situation? If a player is hurt (Grudz), put him on the DL and get someone in here to play second.
Frustrating.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-10
Expected Record 3-10
Runs Scored 41
Runs Allowed 69
Projected Record 38-124
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.26
Let's go get 'em
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Game 13 - 4/15/2007
Game 12 - 4/14/2007
Morpheus says that a deja vu is a disturbance in the Matrix. Consider the Matrix disturbed. Within a span of about 3 minutes, the Royals watched a popup drop between them, and then gave up a grand slam, propelling them to their fourth straight loss. It looks like 2006 all over again. Or, for that matter, 2005 or 2004.
Awful Aprils are becoming the hallmark of this team. It's no wonder they continually lose 100 games when they continually get off to such dismal starts.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-9
Expected Record 3-9
Runs Scored 36
Runs Allowed 57
Projected Record 41-121
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.285
Let's go get 'em
Saturday, April 14, 2007
Game 11 - 4/13/2007
Debilitating injuries (Octavio Dotel), late inning pitching collapses (David Riske), and enemic offense (Alex Gordon). This season is starting to look far too much like seasons past. Let's just hope this small sample size stays small.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-8
Expected Record 3-8
Runs Scored 32
Runs Allowed 51
Projected Record 45-117
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.282
Let's go get 'em
Game 10 - 4/12/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-7
Expected Record 3-7
Runs Scored 31
Runs Allowed 43
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.341
Let's go get 'em
Game 9 - 4/11/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-6
Expected Record 3-6
Runs Scored 30
Runs Allowed 41
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 57-105
Pythagorean Winning% 0.348
Let's go get 'em
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Game 8 - 4/10/2007
The Royals bounced back after two very disappointing games - a blown save and a rout - to get a solid 6-3 win over the Blue Jays.
Zach Greinke had his second straight impressive outing, holding the Jays to 1 run on 6 hits over 6 innings. More importantly, he struck out 5 with no walks. In fact, Royals pitchers gave up no walks at all.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 3-5
Expected Record 3-5
Runs Scored 26
Runs Allowed 34
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368
Let's go get 'em
Game 7 - 4/9/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-5
Expected Record 2-5
Runs Scored 20
Runs Allowed 31
Projected Record 47-115
Pythagorean Record 48-114
Pythagorean Winning% 0.293
Let's go get 'em
Sunday, April 08, 2007
Game 6 - 4/8/2007
Blown saves. The Royals had an amazing 31 of them in 2006. This, obviously, is an area that needed much improvement. Dayton Moore signed Octovial Dotel to fill that role and reverse that trend.
Unfortunately, we heard on the way to the Opening Day game that Dotel had a strained oblique and he was later put on the DL. Setup man David Riske is handling the closing duties until Dotel's return. Riske notched his first save on Friday night, but couldn't record his second on Easter Sunday.
After Brandon Duckworth pitched an absolute gem, keeping the Tigers scoreless, Riske entered the ninth to complete the win. He gave up a double to Ordonez, then a walk and then a homerun to Pudge Rodrigez to give the Tigers the lead, and eventually the win.
Losing the game is somewhat heart breaking, but it is much more encouraging to see the starting pitching continue to be so strong.
Duckworth gave up only 4 hits with one walk and a strike out. He handed the shut out over to Gobble and Soria who each did their part. Too bad Riske couldn't complete the job.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-4
Expected Record 3-3
Runs Scored 19
Runs Allowed 22
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 70-92
Pythagorean Winning% 0.427
Let's go get 'em
Game 5 - 4/7/2007
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-3
Expected Record 2-3
Runs Scored 17
Runs Allowed 19
Projected Record 65-97
Pythagorean Record 72-90
Pythagorean Winning% 0.444
Let's go get 'em
Saturday, April 07, 2007
Game 4 - 4/6/2007
The Royals' run of impressive starting pitching continued on a frigid night as the Royals beat the Tigers 3-1. Royals starter Jorge De La Rosa pitched 7 strong innings giving up 4 hits and 1 earned run. He walked 3 and struck out 5.
Overall, Royals starters had done well:
| Starter | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | Result |
| Meche | 7.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | W,7-1 |
| Perez | 5.1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | L,7-1 |
| Greinke | 7 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 7 | L,4-1 |
| De La Rosa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | W,3-1 |
| Totals | 26.2 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 21 | - |
This is a huge improvement over 2006, when the starters for the first 4 games looked like this:
| Starter | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | Result |
| Elarton | 5.2 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | L,3-1 |
| Mays | 4.1 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 2 | L,14-3 |
| Affeldt | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | W,11-7 |
| Bautista | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | W,4-3 |
| Totals | 20 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 12 | - |
It's encouraging to see the runs and walks reduced, while innings and strike-outs have increased. The Royals' pitching was so awful last year that new GM Dayton Moore completely revamped the staff, retaining only Jimmy Gobble from 2006's opening day roster. Let's hope this improved pitching continues with Saturday's game, which features Gil Meche facing Mike Maroth.
It probably isn't fair to compare Tony Pena Jr's performance with Angel Berroa's 2006 performance, but it is fun to see that Pena has already tripled Berroa's triple total (Pena has 3 in 4 games; Berroa had 1 all year).
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 2-2
Expected Record 2-2
Runs Scored 12
Runs Allowed 13
Projected Record 81-81
Pythagorean Record 75-87
Pythagorean Winning% 0.46
Let's go get 'em
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Game 3 - 4/5/2007
Daisuke Matsuzaka lived up to the hype in his debut against the Royals. Dice-K struck out 10 and had the Royals hitters off balance all day. The only run he gave up was on a 6th inning homerun by David DeJesus.
Zack Greinke, meanwhile, also pitched well in his first start since 2005. Greinke pitched 7 innings, giving up 8 hits and 1 earned run. Most importantly, he walked only one while striking out 7.
Things unraveled for the Royals in the 8th, when Joel Peralta entered the game in relief of Greinke. Peralta gave up three hits, but Gordon committed an error on an easy ground ball off the bat of Mike Lowell that rolled between his legs and into left field. The Sox scored 2 runs (1 earned) in the inning, pushing their 1 run lead to a 3 run lead.
Matsuzaka left after seven innings and the Royals went quietly in the 8th and 9th, giving the Red Sox a 4-1 win and a 2-1 series win.
The Tigers will come to KC tomorrow night, and Breaking 100 will be there.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 1-2
Expected Record 1-2
Runs Scored 9
Runs Allowed 12
Projected Record 54-108
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.360
Let's go get 'em
Fallen Angel
Dan has more info at his blog.
Game 2 - 4/4/2007
The Sox turned the tables on the Royals on a cold, blustery Wednesday night.
Royals starter Odalis Perez struggled early, giving up 3 runs in the first inning. He settled down after that, but seemed to tire as the game progressed.
Perez' last couple of spring starts were cut short because of blister problems on his pitching hand. Perez wasn't able to stretch out his outings, which probably hurt his conditioning. The cold weather probably didn't help much either.
Off Topic... The Mets seem to have the Cardinals' number here in 2007, don't they?
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 1-1
Expected Record 1-1
Runs Scored 8
Runs Allowed 8
Projected Record 81-81
Pythagorean Record 81-81
Pythagorean Winning% 0.500
Let's go get 'em
Tuesday, April 03, 2007
Game 1 - 4/2/2007
Red Sox 1, Royals 7
It was a beautiful day in so many ways. The weather was perfect, and the Royals had an outstanding game to open the 2007 season.
Check out some of these stats:
Gil Meche - 7.1 IP, 6 Hits, 1 Run, 1 BB, 6 SO
Mark Grudzielanek - 3-5, 3 RBI, 2B
Mark Teahen - 2-4, 1 RBI
Joel Peralta - 1.2 IP, 2 Hits, 0 BB, 4 SO
Royals pitchers did a great job of containing the formidable Red Sox lineup, and the Royals were able to string together timely hitting. It was a great game on all counts.
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 1-0
Expected Record 1-0
Runs Scored 7
Runs Allowed 1
Projected Record 162-0
Pythagorean Record 159-3
Pythagorean Winning% 0.98
Let's go get 'em
Monday, April 02, 2007
Opening Day
And God has ordered up a perfect, 80 degree day.
After today, the Royals will project to be either 162-0 or 0-162. Either way, it doesn't matter does it? We love Opening Day.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
The Berroa Saga
On Saturday, Berroa was optioned to AAA Omaha. His performance has been in a steep decline since winning the Rookie of the Year award in 2003. That year, Berroa batted .287 with 92 runs scored. In 2006, Berroa batted .234 with a dismal .259 OBP. He walked just 14 times in 132 games.
This spring, the Royals were hoping a renewed off season training regimen would translate into an improved Berroa. That didn’t materialize however, and Berroa is batting just .263 with 14 strike outs and no walks.
In addition to his offensive struggles, Berroa has also struggled in the field. He has seemed to have lost much of his range, and often muffs the easy plays.
GM Dayton Moore’s quote regarding Berroa’s demotion seemed to say it all: “The decision speaks for itself.” The Royals’ patience with Berroa has run out.
In his first game as a Royal, Pena played well, ranging far to his left to make a diving snag on a grounder and throwing out the speedy Rickie Weeks. Pena already has out-walked Berroa, getting a base on balls in his first game.
Pena might not be the final answer at short for the Royals, but many fans agree, he’s gotta be much better than Berroa has been.
Friday, March 23, 2007
10 Days to go!
There were some interesting developments in Surprise this week while I was in Colorado skiing with my family.
In the "what a shocker!" category (sarcasm duly noted), comes the formal announcement that Alex Gordon will indeed be the starting third baseman on opening day. I found it interesting that the Royals were somewhat mum on this topic heading into Spring Training. All indications were that Gordon would have to earn the job, and the Royals would not commit to the idea of Teahen playing outfield. However, as soon as the team arrived in Surprise, it was obvious that this move would come to pass. Of course it didn't hurt that Gordon had a great spring (.390 with a .500 OBP and .659 SLG), and that Teahen has seemingly taken to the outfield. The decision easily became a no brainer.
In other news, the Royals are beginning to hint that they are running out of patience with SS Angel Berroa. This is good news for frustrated Royals fans. Since his promising Rookie of the Year season in 2003, Berroa has been on a steady decline, capped with a terrible 2006 season. He has no patience at the plate, and seems to brain fart his defense almost nightly. With short stop being such an important position, many fans feel the Royals have no chance to win as long as Berroa is the short stop. The Royals are said to be looking for trades to acquire a new short stop, and would probably have to eat the remainder of Berroa's contract ($8.5 million), but GM Dayton Moore doesn't seem to mind.
Let's go get 'em.
Thursday, March 01, 2007
Spring Training
This is one of my favorite days of the year. As we speak, I am listening to the first Royals radio broadcast.
Yes, it's only the first spring training game and doesn't mean anything. But hearing Denny Matthews and Ryan Lefevre on the radio tells me that spring is indeed coming, and all is good in the world. (except Teahen just struck out).

