Breaking 100: Trending Up

You might wonder why we have a green up arrow when the projections still have the Royals losing 104 games.

The Trend is meant to represent a snippet of how the Royals are currently playing. It is calculated the same way as the other projections, but just using the last 15 games.

Currently, using just the last 15 games to calculate the numbers, the Royals are projected to go 85-77. In other words, if they played their entire season like they've played the last 15 games, they'd be a .524 team.

This snippet shows how the Royals have improved recently. Adjusting the formula to use all games since June 8, the day Dayton Moore took over, the Royals still are playing .524; showing some consistency. So for almost 2 months, the Royals have played well enough to be a respectable baseball team.

Unfortunately, their historically terrible start this season will doom them to another 100 loss season. But the outlook is good for a more competitive team in the future.

Game 104 - 7/30/2006

Royals 2, Rangers 15

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-67
Expected Record 39-65
Runs Scored 475
Runs Allowed 613
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.375

Let's go get 'em

Game 103 - 7/29/2006

Royals 5, Rangers 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-66
Expected Record 40-63
Runs Scored 473
Runs Allowed 598
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.384

Let's go get 'em

Game 102 - 7/28/2006

Royals 11, Rangers 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 36-66
Expected Record 39-63
Runs Scored 468
Runs Allowed 595
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.382

Let's go get 'em

Game 101 - 7/27/2006

Orioles 6, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-66
Expected Record 38-63
Runs Scored 457
Runs Allowed 592
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.373

Let's go get 'em

Game 100 - 7/26/2006

Orioles 4, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-65
Expected Record 38-62
Runs Scored 453
Runs Allowed 586
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.374

Let's go get 'em

Game 99 - 7/25/2006

Orioles 5, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-64
Expected Record 38-61
Runs Scored 450
Runs Allowed 582
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.374

Let's go get 'em

Breaking 100: Adding Depth

Dayton Moore has been busy the last two days. He traded closer (and one of my favorites) Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for two minor league pitchers.

Moore then traded middle reliever Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Odalis Perez and two more pitching prospects. The Dodgers also tossed in $8 million in cash to help cover Perez' salary.

Then tonight, just before game time, Moore announced another trade - Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa.

In two days, Moore traded 3 middle of the road players for six - count them, six - pitchers. It's obvious that Moore's priority is to build pitching depth.

Here are the new Royals pitchers:
Odalis Perez
Jorge De La Rosa
Blake Johnson
Julio Pimentel
Tyler Lumsden
Daniel Cortes

Game 98 - 7/23/2006

Angels 3, Royals 1

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-64
Expected Record 37-61
Runs Scored 443
Runs Allowed 577
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37

Let's go get 'em

Game 97 - 7/22/2006

Angels 4, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-63
Expected Record 37-60
Runs Scored 442
Runs Allowed 574
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Game 96 - 7/21/2006

Angles 3, Royals 8

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-62
Expected Record 36-60
Runs Scored 439
Runs Allowed 570
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Game 95 - 7/20/2006

Angels 4, Royals 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 33-62
Expected Record 35-60
Runs Scored 431
Runs Allowed 567
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 94 - 7/19/2006

Royals 0, Red Sox 1

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-62
Expected Record 34-60
Runs Scored 422
Runs Allowed 563
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.359

Let's go get 'em

Game 93 - 7/18/2006

Royals 0, Red Sox 1

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-61
Expected Record 34-59
Runs Scored 422
Runs Allowed 562
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.36

Let's go get 'em

Game 92 - 7/17/2006

Royals 4, Red Sox 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-60
Expected Record 34-58
Runs Scored 422
Runs Allowed 561
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 91 - 7/16/2006

Royals 9, Tigers 6

The Royals finally snapped their 5 game losing streak and finally beat the Tiger this season. Scott Elarton looked like the serviceable journyman pitcher that he is, going 6 innings while giving up just 3 runs. Elmer Dessens continues to struggle amid trade talks with the Rockies. The Royals are probably hoping to get a good outing out of Dessens so they can move him.

It's also curious how the Royals are handling struggling lefty Andy Sisco. He obviously is in need of some time in the minors, but the Royals have so far refused to send him down. It makes me wonder if Dayton Moore sees no upside in Sisco at all, and so he is letting him stay in KC to allow others to get the minor league innings.

Mark Teahen continues to hit the ball well, sparking speculation that perhaps he could move to first base when Alex Gordon is called up to play third. If Teahen can continue to hit, he should fit nicely in that first base slot allowing the Royals to perhaps trade Justin Huber for more prospects.

It's still a tough road ahead as the Royals move on to Boston for a three game series.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-59
Expected Record 33-58
Runs Scored 418
Runs Allowed 556
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 90 - 7/15/2006

Royals 0, Tigers 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-59
Expected Record 33-57
Runs Scored 409
Runs Allowed 550
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356

Let's go get 'em

Game 89 - 7/14/2006

Royals 9, Tigers 10

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-58
Expected Record 33-56
Runs Scored 409
Runs Allowed 544
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 88 - 7/13/2006

Royals 4, Tigers 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-57
Expected Record 32-56
Runs Scored 400
Runs Allowed 534
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.359

Let's go get 'em

Game 87 - 7/9/2006

Blue Jays 11, Royals 3

Jimmy Gobble just didn't have it. He walked the first batter of the game, and it was downhill from there. It didn't matter though. Gobble could have put up a Clemens-esque performance, and it probably wouldn't have made a difference.

Roy Halladay was that good. Halladay has his way with Royals hitters from the start. I only remember seeing one or two balls that made it out of the infield.

The Royals head into the All Star Break on an up note, playing much better baseball over the last six weeks or so. While it would have been nice to get a win in the last game before the break, the Royals still have to feel good about their recent performance.

This continued improvement should result in the Royals Breaking 100, if they can keep it up for the second half of the season.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-56
Expected Record 32-55
Runs Scored 396
Runs Allowed 528
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.36

Let's go get 'em

Game 86 - 7/8/2006

Blue Jays 7, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-55
Expected Record 32-54
Runs Scored 393
Runs Allowed 517
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 85 - 7/7/2006

Blue Jays 3, Royals 13

And the beat goes on. The Royals got a solid pitching performance from Luke Hudson, and the bats came alive for a 5-run 8th inning to bury the Jays.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-54
Expected Record 32-53
Runs Scored 388
Runs Allowed 510
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 84 - 7/6/2006

Blue Jays 2, Royals 6

Mark Redman cemented his case for having been named to the All Star Team by White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Redman pitched 8 strong innings and notched his 6th win in 7 starts (he got a no decision in his last start against the Cardinals).

Mark Teahen continued his hot hitting with a solo homer in the second inning. He is now sporting an impressive 9 game hitting streak, this coming just off David DeJesus' 11 game streak.

When you combine hot hitting with consistent pitching, wins tend to come your way. The Royals are learning this as they have won 5 of their last 6 series and are 17-16 since June 1.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 30-54
Expected Record 30-54
Runs Scored 375
Runs Allowed 507
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.353

Let's go get 'em

Game 83 - 7/5/2006

Twins 3, Royals 6

I’m not sure what the Twins were thinking when they intentionally walked Angel Berroa to load the bases with 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th inning. John Buck then stepped to the plate, and Juan Rincon buried a pitched that got by Joe Mauer scoring Reggie Sanders from third. That run broke the 3-3 tie. Buck then smoked a double to right-center to drive in the other two runs, putting the Royals up 6-3.


It was another great game for the Royals, who have really been playing well over the last 4 or 5 weeks. Starter Brandon Duckworth pitched well, going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs. The bullpen contributed 3 scoreless innings and Ambiorix Burgos pitched a rather calm ninth inning for his 14th save.

The offense pitched in with some timely hitting, including Buck’s 2 RBI double. David DeJesus’ 11 game hitting streak ended, but he did drive in a run with a sacrifice fly.


The current hot player in MLB right now is Joe Mauer, the catcher for the Twins. Mauer is hitting around .390 and is showing signs of being a significant hitter for the Twins for years to come. Mauer looked somewhat mortal in this game, though. In the first inning, Mauer couldn’t handle a throw from left field as Mark Grudzielanek scored. He also had the run-scoring passed ball in the seventh, and had a poor throw to second on an attempted stolen base. Mauer did reach out and smack a pitch for an RBI single in the fifth inning, and is now batting .391.

Buddy Bell was ejected after arguing a strange call. I’ve seen this before in my son’s little league games, but I’ve never seen the rule come into effect in a pro game. With a runner on first, the batter foul-tipped a pitch into John Buck’s mitt. The runner was running on the pitch, and Buck tried to grab the ball out of his mitt to throw it down to second. He bobbled the ball, then (very intentionally) dropped the ball to the dirt. The umpires huddled and ruled that the runner could stay at second base. This goes against conventional wisdom since foul balls are typically dead balls and runners cannot advance, and if foul balls are caught, they typically are outs. But in the case of a foul tip with less than three strikes, it is not an out, it’s simply a strike and if the catcher catches it, runners may advance at their own risk. In this case, Buck did catch the ball, but dropped it when trying to throw to second. The umpires made the correct call, but Buddy Bell disagreed.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 26-47
Runs Scored 363
Runs Allowed 501
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.344

Let's go get 'em

Game 82 - 7/4/2006

Twins 2, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 357
Runs Allowed 498
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 55-107
Pythagorean Winning% 0.339

Let's go get 'em

Breaking 100: Catching Up

I’ve had a lot of catching up to do. I’ve been away for my son’s baseball tournaments and for a little family vacation over the fourth.

The Royals are playing much better baseball over the last month or so. Whether you attribute it to the hiring of Dayton Moore, the return of David DeJesus, or the fact that they’ve played weak NL teams, the fact remains that the Royals are playing .484 baseball since June 1.

Especially satisfying was the two extra inning wins in St. Louis. Even the typically scary Ambiorix Burgos made it through St. Louis without blowing a game.

After getting knocked around, Mike Wood has landed on the DL, allowing Jimmy Gobble to take over his spot in the rotation. Gobble was a starter when he came up in 2003 as a very young pitcher. In his first stint in the rotation, he struggled getting hitters to swing and miss, and had one of the worst strike-out rates in baseball. This, of course, didn’t bode well for Gobble.

Since returning this year, Gobble is striking out 7.19 batters per 9 innings. By comparison, his K-Rate was just 2.98 in 2004.

Also worth mentioning is the selection of Mark Redman to the All Star Game. There’s been a lot talk about this selection. Some folks are saying this is the perfect example of why the “at least one player from each team” rule is antiquated and unnecessary. I disagree. The All Star Game is for the fans, and fans of each and every team should have the opportunity to watch at least one of their players.

The problem is more likely the selection process. In this case, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen made the Redman selection. What does Guillen know about the Royals? Obviously, nothing. David DeJesus, Mark Grudzeilanek, maybe even Emil Brown would have been a better choice. At least DeJesus is a true Royal, likely to play here for years to come. Fan voting doesn’t apply to pitchers, and only applies to the starters. Perhaps fan voting should somehow be utilized to decide on reserves. Maybe the top vote getter for each team could be that teams’ representative. Either way, baseball should keep its rule requiring one player from each team.

We’ll be at the park tonight celebrating my wife’s birthday. Hopefully, we’ll also be celebrating a series win against the Twins.

Game 81 - 7/3/2006

Twins 6, Royals 5
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 350
Runs Allowed 496
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 54-108
Pythagorean Winning% 0.332

Let's go get 'em

Game 80 - 7/2/2006

Royals 7, Cardinals 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 345
Runs Allowed 490
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 54-108
Pythagorean Winning% 0.331

Let's go get 'em

Game 79 - 7/1/2006

Royals 8, Cardinals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 338
Runs Allowed 481
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 54-108
Pythagorean Winning% 0.33

Let's go get 'em

Game 78 - 6/30/2006

Royals 7, Cardinals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 330
Runs Allowed 474
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 53-109
Pythagorean Winning% 0.326

Let's go get 'em

Game 77 - 6/29/2006

Royals 5, Reds 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 323
Runs Allowed 469
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 53-109
Pythagorean Winning% 0.321

Let's go get 'em

Game 76 - 6/28/2006

Royals 2, Reds 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 318
Runs Allowed 463
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 52-110
Pythagorean Winning% 0.32

Let's go get 'em

Game 75 - 6/27/2006

Royals 9, Reds 8

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 316
Runs Allowed 456
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 53-109
Pythagorean Winning% 0.324

Let's go get 'em

Game 74 - 6/25/2006

Brewers 0, Royals 6

Is Dayton Moore doing this? Since his hiring, the Royals are 10-7. The Royals' overall play has improved including, most importantly, their pitching. This upswing also coincides with the return of David DeJesus from the DL. Perhaps a combination of having your starting center fielder back, moving him to left to allow a speedy Joey Gathright to take over in center, and the overall improvement of the pitching staff has more to do with it than who is sitting in the GM's chair. But it was Moore who boldly traded his best pitching prospect to get Gathright.

Whatever it is, let's hope it continues. The Royals are finally trending upward, allowing us to finally use our green up arrow for the first time all season. While the Royals are still on pace to lose 110 games, if this improvement continues they could possibly, after all, break 100.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 307
Runs Allowed 448
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 52-110
Pythagorean Winning% 0.319

Let's go get 'em