Thursday, December 14, 2006

Breaking 100: A new era…

Anybody who has frequented this blog most certainly noticed that it hasn't been updated since the Royals lost their 100th game of the season. There were many factors that contributed to my lack of posts. My hope for an improved Royals team was crushed this season when it became blatantly obvious that they would indeed lose 100 games. I simply ran out of steam by the time late September came around.

And of course, my personal life became a hectic, chaotic mess during that same time period. Having a son in youth football steals away an enormous amount of time.

But as the holidays near, it is again time to start thinking about baseball. The Royals made a handful of moves this off season and caused a splash around baseball when they signed right handed pitcher Gil Meche to a 5 year, $55 million contract. While there are plenty of detractors, several folks have defended Dayton Moore's gamble.

ESPN's Jerry Crasnick wrote that after 15 years of suffering, "it's about time for plan B."

I tend to agree with Crasnick's position. Yes, it was a bold move and could prove to be a terrible investment. But, with the signing of Meche, Moore is making a statement that the Royals no longer should be thought of as the Wal-Mart of baseball. This signing is something new and different; a different approach to building a ball club.

After all of the failures in recent years, isn't it about time the Royals tried something new?

Friday, September 29, 2006

Breaking 100: 100 Broken

Well, they did it. After a strong outing by Luke Hudson, closer Joe Nelson gave up a game-tying home run to Joe Mauer and the Twins finished off the Royals in the 10th inning, handing them their 100th loss of the season.

After a promising run of great baseball in late August and early September, the Royals have basically crashed over the last two weeks. We here at Breaking 100 were very optimistic that they would avoid the century mark based on the way they were playing. But a combination of injuries (Ryan Shealy’s mysterious hives being the most hurtful) and poor play conspired to hand the Royals their third straight 100-loss season.

Royals fans can take heart though… We still remain optimistic that Dayton Moore will turn the team around.

Lets go get 'em... next year!

Game 159 - 9/28/2006

Royals 1, Twins 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 59-100
Expected Record 59-100
Runs Scored 729
Runs Allowed 950
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37

Let's go get 'em

Game 158 - 9/27/2006

Royals 6, Twins 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 59-99
Expected Record 59-99
Runs Scored 728
Runs Allowed 948
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37

Let's go get 'em

Game 157 - 9/26/2006

Royals 2, Twins 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-99
Expected Record 58-99
Runs Scored 722
Runs Allowed 944
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Breaking 100: What Happened???

A week ago, I would have bet the farm that the Royals would avoid 100 losses. Since then however, the Royals have lost 7 straight and need only 2 more losses to hit 100. They have three games left against the Twins and then three at Detroit. Both teams are headed for the post season.

Game 156 - 9/25/2006

Royals 1, Twins 8

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-98
Expected Record 58-98
Runs Scored 720
Runs Allowed 941
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Monday, September 25, 2006

Game 155 - 9/24/2006

Tigers 11, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-97
Expected Record 58-97
Runs Scored 719
Runs Allowed 933
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Game 154 - 9/23/2006

Tigers 15, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-96
Expected Record 58-96
Runs Scored 715
Runs Allowed 922
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.375

Let's go get 'em

Game 153 - 9/22/2006

Tigers 7, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-95
Expected Record 59-94
Runs Scored 711
Runs Allowed 907
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.38

Let's go get 'em

Game 152 - 9/20/2006

Angels 3, Royals 0

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-94
Expected Record 59-93
Runs Scored 708
Runs Allowed 900
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.382

Let's go get 'em

Game 151 - 9/19/2006

Angels 5, Royals 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-93
Expected Record 58-93
Runs Scored 708
Runs Allowed 897
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.383

Let's go get 'em

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Game 150 - 9/17/2006

Mariners 10, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-92
Expected Record 58-92
Runs Scored 706
Runs Allowed 892
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.385

Let's go get 'em

Game 148- 9/16/2006

Mariners 4, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 58-91
Expected Record 58-91
Runs Scored 701
Runs Allowed 882
Projected Record 64-98
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.387

Let's go get 'em

Game 149 - 9/15/2006

Mariners 11, Royals 8

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 57-91
Expected Record 57-91
Runs Scored 694
Runs Allowed 878
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.384

Let's go get 'em

Game 147 - 9/14/2006

Mariners 8, Royals 10

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 57-90
Expected Record 57-90
Runs Scored 686
Runs Allowed 867
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.385

Let's go get 'em

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Game 146 - 9/13/2006

Royals 6, Indians 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 56-90
Expected Record 56-90
Runs Scored 676
Runs Allowed 859
Projected Record 63-99
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.382

Let's go get 'em

Game 145 - 9/12/2006

Royals 5, Indians 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 55-90
Expected Record 55-90
Runs Scored 670
Runs Allowed 857
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.379

Let's go get 'em

Monday, September 11, 2006

Game 144 - 9/10/2006

Royals 3, Red Sox 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 54-90
Expected Record 55-89
Runs Scored 665
Runs Allowed 854
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.377

Let's go get 'em

Game 143 - 9/9/2006

Royals 10, Red Sox 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 54-89
Expected Record 55-88
Runs Scored 662
Runs Allowed 845
Projected Record 62-100
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.38

Let's go get 'em

Game 142 - 9/8/2006

Royals 10, Red Sox 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 53-89
Expected Record 54-88
Runs Scored 652
Runs Allowed 841
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.375

Let's go get 'em

Friday, September 08, 2006

Breaking 100: Winding Down

The season is quickly winding down. The Royals still have a chance to avoid 100 losses, but must play .500 ball to do so.

The encouraging thing is that the Royals are actually playing pretty well lately. And there are some young players who fans can look forward to seeing in the next year or two.

Mark Teahen’s emergence as an All-Star caliber hitter has been a refreshing surprise. Teahen’s season is over, as he is having surgery on his shoulder today. The injury has bothered him all season, and he decided to have the surgery now to ensure he will be ready when Spring Training starts. (see Dan Fox’s article on Teahen at Baseball Prospectus.)

Ryan Shealy is looking like he can fill the first base spot well. With Alex Gordon and Billy Butler knocking on the door, next year’s lineup should be light years ahead of this year’s.

Perhaps next season’s line up will look something like this:
• 1B Shealy
• 2B Grudz
• SS Berroa (or somebody new?)
• 3B Gordon
• LF Teahen (he’s athletic enough to move to the outfield)
• CF DeJesus (Sorry Gathright, but you’ve disappointed here)
• RF Sanders (or somebody new?)
• DH Sweeney/Butler

The only question is still pitching. Dayton Moore seems to be trying to address pitching based on the moves he’s made since taking over in June.

So as football gets started (my son’s team, the Jets, play their first game tomorrow), we Royals fans can root the team on to 11 wins and look forward to a much better season in 2007.

As Cubs fans always say, “there’s always next year.”

Let’s go get ‘em.

Game 141 - 9/6/2006

Yankees 8, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 52-89
Expected Record 53-88
Runs Scored 642
Runs Allowed 832
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.373

Let's go get 'em

Game 140 - 9/5/2006

Yankees 0, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 52-88
Expected Record 53-87
Runs Scored 639
Runs Allowed 824
Projected Record 61-101
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.375

Let's go get 'em

Game 139 - 9/4/2006

Yankees 12, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 51-88
Expected Record 52-87
Runs Scored 634
Runs Allowed 824
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.371

Let's go get 'em

Game 138 - 9/3/2006

White Sox 3, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 51-87
Expected Record 52-86
Runs Scored 629
Runs Allowed 812
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.375

Let's go get 'em

Game 137 - 9/2/2006

White Sox 5, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 50-87
Expected Record 51-86
Runs Scored 622
Runs Allowed 809
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.371

Let's go get 'em

Game 136 - 9/1/2006

White Sox 5, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 50-86
Expected Record 51-85
Runs Scored 619
Runs Allowed 804
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Game 135 - 8/31/2006

Royals 1, Twins 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 49-86
Expected Record 50-85
Runs Scored 612
Runs Allowed 799
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Game 134 - 8/30/2006

Royals 4, Twins 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 49-85
Expected Record 50-84
Runs Scored 611
Runs Allowed 796
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37

Let's go get 'em

Game 133 - 8/29/2006

Royals 2, Twins 0

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 48-85
Expected Record 50-83
Runs Scored 607
Runs Allowed 793
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Game 132 - 8/27/2006

Royals 6, Blue Jays 10

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 47-85
Expected Record 49-83
Runs Scored 605
Runs Allowed 793
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.367

Let's go get 'em

Game 131 - 8/26/2006

Royals 2, Blue Jays 0

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 47-84
Expected Record 49-82
Runs Scored 599
Runs Allowed 783
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Game 130 - 8/25/2006

Royals 3, Blue Jays 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 46-84
Expected Record 48-82
Runs Scored 597
Runs Allowed 783
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.367

Let's go get 'em

Game 129 - 8/24/2006

Indians 8, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 46-83
Expected Record 48-81
Runs Scored 594
Runs Allowed 777
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368

Let's go get 'em

Game 128 - 8/23/2006

Indians 15, Royals 13

Happy Birthday, Harry!

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 46-82
Expected Record 48-80
Runs Scored 590
Runs Allowed 769
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37

Let's go get 'em

Game 127 - 8/22/2006

Indians 2, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 46-81
Expected Record 47-80
Runs Scored 577
Runs Allowed 754
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Monday, August 21, 2006

Game 126 - 8/20/2006

A's 6, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 45-81
Expected Record 47-79
Runs Scored 572
Runs Allowed 752
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 125 - 8/19/2006

A's 7, Royals 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 45-80
Expected Record 46-79
Runs Scored 568
Runs Allowed 746
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 124 - 8/18/2006

A's 3, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 45-79
Expected Record 46-78
Runs Scored 566
Runs Allowed 739
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.369

Let's go get 'em

Game 123 - 8/18/2006

A's 1, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 44-79
Expected Record 46-77
Runs Scored 561
Runs Allowed 736
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.367

Let's go get 'em

Friday, August 18, 2006

Game 122 - 8/17/2006

Royals 4, White Sox 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 43-79
Expected Record 45-77
Runs Scored 554
Runs Allowed 735
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.362

Let's go get 'em

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Breaking 100: Almost Grudz

Royals second baseman Mark Grudzielanek was almost traded. Rumors were flying before Wednesday's game against the White Sox that a trade to the Detroit Tigers was imminent, sending the steady veteran off to shore up the Tigers' infield after their loss of Placido Palanco to the DL.

Instead, the Royals announced that Grudzielanek had signed a contract extension to stay with the Royals in 2007 with a mutual option for 2008. The signing allows the Royals to retain the reliable defense and consistent offense that Grudzielanek has provided. Grudz has just 3 errors this season, and is batting .292 with 5 homeruns and 39 RBI. The signing also ends speculation that minor leaguer Jeff Keppinger would be the second baseman in 2007. Instead, Royals GM Dayton Moore is either buying more time for Keppinger to develop, or buying more time to find his second baseman of the future.

In Wednesday's 10-4 rout of the White Sox, Grudzielanek almost hit for the cycle. He was only short a double, and had a three run homer along with a triple and single.

Grudz says he looks forward to playing with the Royals and believes good things are on the horizon. He said that he likes the direction of the club since Dayton Moore took over as GM in June.

I believe Royals fans agree.

Game 121 - 8/16/2006

Royals 10, White Sox 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 43-78
Expected Record 44-77
Runs Scored 550
Runs Allowed 730
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.362

Let's go get 'em

Game 120 - 8/15/2006

Royals 4, White Sox 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 42-78
Expected Record 43-77
Runs Scored 540
Runs Allowed 726
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356

Let's go get 'em

Game 119 - 8/14/2006

Royals 2, White Sox 12

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 41-78
Expected Record 43-76
Runs Scored 536
Runs Allowed 724
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.354

Let's go get 'em

Game 118 - 8/13/2006

Royals 0, Indians 13

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 41-77
Expected Record 43-75
Runs Scored 534
Runs Allowed 712
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.36

Let's go get 'em

Game 117 - 8/12/2006

Royals 5, Indians 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 41-76
Expected Record 44-73
Runs Scored 534
Runs Allowed 699
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368

Let's go get 'em

Game 116 - 8/12/2006

Royals 4, Indians 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 41-75
Expected Record 43-73
Runs Scored 529
Runs Allowed 693
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368

Let's go get 'em

Game 115 - 8/11/2006

Royals 3, Indians 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 41-74
Expected Record 43-72
Runs Scored 525
Runs Allowed 688
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368

Let's go get 'em

Game 114 - 8/10/2006

Royals 5, Red Sox 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 41-73
Expected Record 42-72
Runs Scored 522
Runs Allowed 684
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.368

Let's go get 'em

Game 113 - 8/9/2006

Royals 5, Red Sox 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 40-73
Expected Record 42-71
Runs Scored 517
Runs Allowed 680
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 112 - 8/8/2006

Royals 6, Red Sox 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 39-73
Expected Record 41-71
Runs Scored 512
Runs Allowed 676
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.364

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Game 111 - 8/6/2006

Twins 11, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-73
Expected Record 41-70
Runs Scored 506
Runs Allowed 672
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 110 - 8/5/2006

Twins 14, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-72
Expected Record 41-69
Runs Scored 501
Runs Allowed 661
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.364

Let's go get 'em

Game 109 - 8/4/2006

Twins 8, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-71
Expected Record 41-68
Runs Scored 498
Runs Allowed 647
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Friday, August 04, 2006

Breaking 100: Allard Baird is a Frickin' Genius!!!

When former Royals GM Allard Baird was looking to trade superstar Carlos Beltran, the one player he coveted was Mark Teahen. Baird approached the trade with laser focus, target a third baseman and selecting Teahen as his guy.

In 2005, Teahen was rushed to the majors after injuries and the inability to fill the spot left the Royals in need of a third baseman. Teahen struggled, showing an inability to pull major league pitching.

This year, Teahen again got off to a slow start and was eventually sent to AAA Omaha to figure things out. At this point, Royals fans were fed up with Baird's obsession, and many accused Baird of never getting value in return in his trades.

After a couple of weeks, Teahen was promoted back to KC, and since then he has looked like the second coming of George Brett.

Teahen is hitting for average, hitting for power, hitting to all fields, and hitting in the clutch. In short, he's become a hitter that everybody stops what they're doing to watch hit.

As it turns out, perhaps Teahen is becoming the player that Baird envisioned. He just needed a little time to get acclimated to the majors.

Game 108 - 8/3/2006

White Sox 8, Royals 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-70
Expected Record 41-67
Runs Scored 493
Runs Allowed 639
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.373

Let's go get 'em

Game 107 - 8/2/2006

White Sox 3, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 38-69
Expected Record 41-66
Runs Scored 491
Runs Allowed 631
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.377

Let's go get 'em

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Game 106 - 8/1/2006

White Sox 7, Royals 5

This game featured the Royal debut of three players – Odalis Perez, Ryan Shealy, and Scott Dohmann.

Perez got the start and pitched just 4 innings. Since Perez had been a reliever for a while, it will take some time for him to build back up to more innings. He pitched fairly well, but it was obvious that he was knocking some rust off. Perez have up 3 hits and 2 runs, walking 2 and striking out 4. Perez was visibly upset after he gave up a game-tying home run to Joe Crede in the 4th inning.

First baseman Ryan Shealy, making his debut since being traded from the Rockies, looked a bit over matched. Shealy was 0-4 with 2 strike outs. He easily fell of the old “climb the ladder” trick, swinging the high fast balls.

Scott Dohmann, also from the Rockies, pitched 1 1/3 innings giving up 3 hits and 1 run.

The highlight of the night was Mark Teahen’s 2 RBI double in the 8th. The Royals were trailing 4-2 when Teahen approached the plate. He fought off several pitches, and finally took a pitch the opposite way down the left field line scoring DeJesus and Grudzielanek. With Teahen on second, Reggie Sanders blooped a single moving Teahen to third, setting up a perfect opportunity for Emil Brown to drive in the go ahead run. Brown promptly slapped the first pitch he saw right to the short stop for an inning ending, rally ending double play.

The game remained tied 4-4 through nine innings. Ambiorix Burgos, pitching his second inning of the night, gave up three runs in the 10th, making Angel Berroa’s solo homer in the bottom of the tenth useless.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-69
Expected Record 40-66
Runs Scored 484
Runs Allowed 628
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Game 105 - 7/31/2006

White Sox 8, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-68
Expected Record 40-65
Runs Scored 479
Runs Allowed 621
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.373

Let's go get 'em

Breaking 100: Trading Up

Now that the dust has settled a bit after the non-waiver trade deadline, it’s time to evaluate how the Royals have done.

Here’s a look at the players that have left the Royals organization:
• JP Howell, LHP – some called Howell the Royals’ most promising pitching prospect. Struggled during his short time in KC.
• Ruben Gotay, 2B – another promising prospect who struggled in KC, and hasn’t quite recovered since.
• Mike MacDougal, RHP – this guy can pitch, when healthy. Showed great promise in 2003, but injuries and illness have held him back since.
• Elmer Dessens, RHP – aging reliever who provided some veteran presence in the bullpen this year.
• Tony Graffanino, IF – competent utility infielder who split time with Esteban German. Decent hitter, but not a cornerstone of any team.
• Matt Stairs, DH – power lefty who provided nothing more than an additional HR in the Royals’ losses. Good veteran guy, but not a part of the future.
• Jeremy Affeldt, LHP – another promising pitcher who could never come through. I thought Affeldt was the real deal a few years ago, but his injuries and ineffectiveness grew tiring.
• Denny Bautista, RHP – Bautista had such sizzling stuff in spring training, everybody was gushing about how great he could be. Spent much of 2006 struggling in Omaha.

In my opinion, none of these players will play a major role in the future of the Royals, and most were struggling guys who were mired in mediocrity.

Now let’s look at who the Royals have acquired since Moore took over:
• Daniel Cortes, RHP
• Jorge de la Rosa, LHP
• Jose Diaz, RHP
• Scott Dohmann, RHP
• Brandon Duckworth, RHP
• Blake Johnson, RHP
• Tyler Lumsden, LHP
• Odalis Perez, LHP
• Julio Pimentel, RHP
• Todd Wellemeyer, RHP
• Fernando Cortez, IF
• Jeff Keppinger, IF
• Joey Gathright, CF
• Ryan Shealy, 1B/DH

Look at the first 10 players on this list. Pitchers. The Royals have been pitching-poor for years, and Moore’s first priority was to bolster the pitching ranks throughout the system. These pitchers are sprinkled throughout the organization – from High A to KC – to help not only today’s Royals, but the Royals of the future.

Jorge de la Rosa has already won a start. Brandon Duckworth provided some starts and has moved to the bullpen. Odalis Perez gets his first start tonight against the White Sox. Scott Dohmann reported to the right field bullpen at Kauffman Stadium last night.

If only 2 of the 10 pitchers pan out, Moore still should be considered a success.

Another area of concern for Moore was first base. Justin Huber had been tagged as the first baseman of the future, but after spending a few weeks rotting on the Royals bench, he was sent back to Omaha and moved to the outfield. Moore got his guy in the Affeldt deal – Ryan Shealy.

Moore has begun putting his stamp on his team. What is most encouraging to me is that, at least to me, it seems that Moore is trading on his terms. Former GM Allard Baird always seemed to be dealing in desperation. When he “needed” to get rid of Jermaine Dye, he got Neifi Perez. When he “needed” to get rid of Johnny Damon, he got Roberto Hernandez. It doesn’t feel like Moore will make those kinds of mistakes.

While the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, that doesn’t mean that the trades will cease. I believe Moore will continue to deal until August 31. Let’s hope this trend continues.

Monday, July 31, 2006

Breaking 100: Trending Up

You might wonder why we have a green up arrow when the projections still have the Royals losing 104 games.

The Trend is meant to represent a snippet of how the Royals are currently playing. It is calculated the same way as the other projections, but just using the last 15 games.

Currently, using just the last 15 games to calculate the numbers, the Royals are projected to go 85-77. In other words, if they played their entire season like they've played the last 15 games, they'd be a .524 team.

This snippet shows how the Royals have improved recently. Adjusting the formula to use all games since June 8, the day Dayton Moore took over, the Royals still are playing .524; showing some consistency. So for almost 2 months, the Royals have played well enough to be a respectable baseball team.

Unfortunately, their historically terrible start this season will doom them to another 100 loss season. But the outlook is good for a more competitive team in the future.

Game 104 - 7/30/2006

Royals 2, Rangers 15

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-67
Expected Record 39-65
Runs Scored 475
Runs Allowed 613
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.375

Let's go get 'em

Game 103 - 7/29/2006

Royals 5, Rangers 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 37-66
Expected Record 40-63
Runs Scored 473
Runs Allowed 598
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 63-99
Pythagorean Winning% 0.384

Let's go get 'em

Game 102 - 7/28/2006

Royals 11, Rangers 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 36-66
Expected Record 39-63
Runs Scored 468
Runs Allowed 595
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 62-100
Pythagorean Winning% 0.382

Let's go get 'em

Game 101 - 7/27/2006

Orioles 6, Royals 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-66
Expected Record 38-63
Runs Scored 457
Runs Allowed 592
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.373

Let's go get 'em

Game 100 - 7/26/2006

Orioles 4, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-65
Expected Record 38-62
Runs Scored 453
Runs Allowed 586
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.374

Let's go get 'em

Game 99 - 7/25/2006

Orioles 5, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 35-64
Expected Record 38-61
Runs Scored 450
Runs Allowed 582
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.374

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Breaking 100: Adding Depth

Dayton Moore has been busy the last two days. He traded closer (and one of my favorites) Mike MacDougal to the White Sox for two minor league pitchers.

Moore then traded middle reliever Elmer Dessens to the Dodgers for Odalis Perez and two more pitching prospects. The Dodgers also tossed in $8 million in cash to help cover Perez' salary.

Then tonight, just before game time, Moore announced another trade - Tony Graffanino to the Brewers for Jorge De La Rosa.

In two days, Moore traded 3 middle of the road players for six - count them, six - pitchers. It's obvious that Moore's priority is to build pitching depth.

Here are the new Royals pitchers:
Odalis Perez
Jorge De La Rosa
Blake Johnson
Julio Pimentel
Tyler Lumsden
Daniel Cortes

Game 98 - 7/23/2006

Angels 3, Royals 1

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-64
Expected Record 37-61
Runs Scored 443
Runs Allowed 577
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.37

Let's go get 'em

Game 97 - 7/22/2006

Angels 4, Royals 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-63
Expected Record 37-60
Runs Scored 442
Runs Allowed 574
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Game 96 - 7/21/2006

Angles 3, Royals 8

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 34-62
Expected Record 36-60
Runs Scored 439
Runs Allowed 570
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 61-101
Pythagorean Winning% 0.372

Let's go get 'em

Game 95 - 7/20/2006

Angels 4, Royals 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 33-62
Expected Record 35-60
Runs Scored 431
Runs Allowed 567
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 94 - 7/19/2006

Royals 0, Red Sox 1

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-62
Expected Record 34-60
Runs Scored 422
Runs Allowed 563
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.359

Let's go get 'em

Game 93 - 7/18/2006

Royals 0, Red Sox 1

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-61
Expected Record 34-59
Runs Scored 422
Runs Allowed 562
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.36

Let's go get 'em

Game 92 - 7/17/2006

Royals 4, Red Sox 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-60
Expected Record 34-58
Runs Scored 422
Runs Allowed 561
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Monday, July 17, 2006

Game 91 - 7/16/2006

Royals 9, Tigers 6

The Royals finally snapped their 5 game losing streak and finally beat the Tiger this season. Scott Elarton looked like the serviceable journyman pitcher that he is, going 6 innings while giving up just 3 runs. Elmer Dessens continues to struggle amid trade talks with the Rockies. The Royals are probably hoping to get a good outing out of Dessens so they can move him.

It's also curious how the Royals are handling struggling lefty Andy Sisco. He obviously is in need of some time in the minors, but the Royals have so far refused to send him down. It makes me wonder if Dayton Moore sees no upside in Sisco at all, and so he is letting him stay in KC to allow others to get the minor league innings.

Mark Teahen continues to hit the ball well, sparking speculation that perhaps he could move to first base when Alex Gordon is called up to play third. If Teahen can continue to hit, he should fit nicely in that first base slot allowing the Royals to perhaps trade Justin Huber for more prospects.

It's still a tough road ahead as the Royals move on to Boston for a three game series.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 32-59
Expected Record 33-58
Runs Scored 418
Runs Allowed 556
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 90 - 7/15/2006

Royals 0, Tigers 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-59
Expected Record 33-57
Runs Scored 409
Runs Allowed 550
Projected Record 56-106
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.356

Let's go get 'em

Game 89 - 7/14/2006

Royals 9, Tigers 10

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-58
Expected Record 33-56
Runs Scored 409
Runs Allowed 544
Projected Record 57-105
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.361

Let's go get 'em

Game 88 - 7/13/2006

Royals 4, Tigers 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-57
Expected Record 32-56
Runs Scored 400
Runs Allowed 534
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.359

Let's go get 'em

Monday, July 10, 2006

Game 87 - 7/9/2006

Blue Jays 11, Royals 3

Jimmy Gobble just didn't have it. He walked the first batter of the game, and it was downhill from there. It didn't matter though. Gobble could have put up a Clemens-esque performance, and it probably wouldn't have made a difference.

Roy Halladay was that good. Halladay has his way with Royals hitters from the start. I only remember seeing one or two balls that made it out of the infield.

The Royals head into the All Star Break on an up note, playing much better baseball over the last six weeks or so. While it would have been nice to get a win in the last game before the break, the Royals still have to feel good about their recent performance.

This continued improvement should result in the Royals Breaking 100, if they can keep it up for the second half of the season.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-56
Expected Record 32-55
Runs Scored 396
Runs Allowed 528
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 59-103
Pythagorean Winning% 0.36

Let's go get 'em

Saturday, July 08, 2006

Game 86 - 7/8/2006

Blue Jays 7, Royals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-55
Expected Record 32-54
Runs Scored 393
Runs Allowed 517
Projected Record 59-103
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Friday, July 07, 2006

Game 85 - 7/7/2006

Blue Jays 3, Royals 13

And the beat goes on. The Royals got a solid pitching performance from Luke Hudson, and the bats came alive for a 5-run 8th inning to bury the Jays.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 31-54
Expected Record 32-53
Runs Scored 388
Runs Allowed 510
Projected Record 60-102
Pythagorean Record 60-102
Pythagorean Winning% 0.366

Let's go get 'em

Game 84 - 7/6/2006

Blue Jays 2, Royals 6

Mark Redman cemented his case for having been named to the All Star Team by White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Redman pitched 8 strong innings and notched his 6th win in 7 starts (he got a no decision in his last start against the Cardinals).

Mark Teahen continued his hot hitting with a solo homer in the second inning. He is now sporting an impressive 9 game hitting streak, this coming just off David DeJesus' 11 game streak.

When you combine hot hitting with consistent pitching, wins tend to come your way. The Royals are learning this as they have won 5 of their last 6 series and are 17-16 since June 1.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 30-54
Expected Record 30-54
Runs Scored 375
Runs Allowed 507
Projected Record 58-104
Pythagorean Record 58-104
Pythagorean Winning% 0.353

Let's go get 'em

Game 83 - 7/5/2006

Twins 3, Royals 6

I’m not sure what the Twins were thinking when they intentionally walked Angel Berroa to load the bases with 2 outs in the bottom of the 7th inning. John Buck then stepped to the plate, and Juan Rincon buried a pitched that got by Joe Mauer scoring Reggie Sanders from third. That run broke the 3-3 tie. Buck then smoked a double to right-center to drive in the other two runs, putting the Royals up 6-3.


It was another great game for the Royals, who have really been playing well over the last 4 or 5 weeks. Starter Brandon Duckworth pitched well, going 6 innings and giving up 3 runs. The bullpen contributed 3 scoreless innings and Ambiorix Burgos pitched a rather calm ninth inning for his 14th save.

The offense pitched in with some timely hitting, including Buck’s 2 RBI double. David DeJesus’ 11 game hitting streak ended, but he did drive in a run with a sacrifice fly.


The current hot player in MLB right now is Joe Mauer, the catcher for the Twins. Mauer is hitting around .390 and is showing signs of being a significant hitter for the Twins for years to come. Mauer looked somewhat mortal in this game, though. In the first inning, Mauer couldn’t handle a throw from left field as Mark Grudzielanek scored. He also had the run-scoring passed ball in the seventh, and had a poor throw to second on an attempted stolen base. Mauer did reach out and smack a pitch for an RBI single in the fifth inning, and is now batting .391.

Buddy Bell was ejected after arguing a strange call. I’ve seen this before in my son’s little league games, but I’ve never seen the rule come into effect in a pro game. With a runner on first, the batter foul-tipped a pitch into John Buck’s mitt. The runner was running on the pitch, and Buck tried to grab the ball out of his mitt to throw it down to second. He bobbled the ball, then (very intentionally) dropped the ball to the dirt. The umpires huddled and ruled that the runner could stay at second base. This goes against conventional wisdom since foul balls are typically dead balls and runners cannot advance, and if foul balls are caught, they typically are outs. But in the case of a foul tip with less than three strikes, it is not an out, it’s simply a strike and if the catcher catches it, runners may advance at their own risk. In this case, Buck did catch the ball, but dropped it when trying to throw to second. The umpires made the correct call, but Buddy Bell disagreed.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 26-47
Runs Scored 363
Runs Allowed 501
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 56-106
Pythagorean Winning% 0.344

Let's go get 'em

Thursday, July 06, 2006

Game 82 - 7/4/2006

Twins 2, Royals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 357
Runs Allowed 498
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 55-107
Pythagorean Winning% 0.339

Let's go get 'em

Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Breaking 100: Catching Up

I’ve had a lot of catching up to do. I’ve been away for my son’s baseball tournaments and for a little family vacation over the fourth.

The Royals are playing much better baseball over the last month or so. Whether you attribute it to the hiring of Dayton Moore, the return of David DeJesus, or the fact that they’ve played weak NL teams, the fact remains that the Royals are playing .484 baseball since June 1.

Especially satisfying was the two extra inning wins in St. Louis. Even the typically scary Ambiorix Burgos made it through St. Louis without blowing a game.

After getting knocked around, Mike Wood has landed on the DL, allowing Jimmy Gobble to take over his spot in the rotation. Gobble was a starter when he came up in 2003 as a very young pitcher. In his first stint in the rotation, he struggled getting hitters to swing and miss, and had one of the worst strike-out rates in baseball. This, of course, didn’t bode well for Gobble.

Since returning this year, Gobble is striking out 7.19 batters per 9 innings. By comparison, his K-Rate was just 2.98 in 2004.

Also worth mentioning is the selection of Mark Redman to the All Star Game. There’s been a lot talk about this selection. Some folks are saying this is the perfect example of why the “at least one player from each team” rule is antiquated and unnecessary. I disagree. The All Star Game is for the fans, and fans of each and every team should have the opportunity to watch at least one of their players.

The problem is more likely the selection process. In this case, White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen made the Redman selection. What does Guillen know about the Royals? Obviously, nothing. David DeJesus, Mark Grudzeilanek, maybe even Emil Brown would have been a better choice. At least DeJesus is a true Royal, likely to play here for years to come. Fan voting doesn’t apply to pitchers, and only applies to the starters. Perhaps fan voting should somehow be utilized to decide on reserves. Maybe the top vote getter for each team could be that teams’ representative. Either way, baseball should keep its rule requiring one player from each team.

We’ll be at the park tonight celebrating my wife’s birthday. Hopefully, we’ll also be celebrating a series win against the Twins.

Game 81 - 7/3/2006

Twins 6, Royals 5
The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 350
Runs Allowed 496
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 54-108
Pythagorean Winning% 0.332

Let's go get 'em

Game 80 - 7/2/2006

Royals 7, Cardinals 9

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 345
Runs Allowed 490
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 54-108
Pythagorean Winning% 0.331

Let's go get 'em

Game 79 - 7/1/2006

Royals 8, Cardinals 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 25-48
Runs Scored 338
Runs Allowed 481
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 54-108
Pythagorean Winning% 0.33

Let's go get 'em

Game 78 - 6/30/2006

Royals 7, Cardinals 5

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 330
Runs Allowed 474
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 53-109
Pythagorean Winning% 0.326

Let's go get 'em

Game 77 - 6/29/2006

Royals 5, Reds 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 323
Runs Allowed 469
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 53-109
Pythagorean Winning% 0.321

Let's go get 'em

Game 76 - 6/28/2006

Royals 2, Reds 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 318
Runs Allowed 463
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 52-110
Pythagorean Winning% 0.32

Let's go get 'em

Game 75 - 6/27/2006

Royals 9, Reds 8

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 316
Runs Allowed 456
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 53-109
Pythagorean Winning% 0.324

Let's go get 'em

Game 74 - 6/25/2006

Brewers 0, Royals 6

Is Dayton Moore doing this? Since his hiring, the Royals are 10-7. The Royals' overall play has improved including, most importantly, their pitching. This upswing also coincides with the return of David DeJesus from the DL. Perhaps a combination of having your starting center fielder back, moving him to left to allow a speedy Joey Gathright to take over in center, and the overall improvement of the pitching staff has more to do with it than who is sitting in the GM's chair. But it was Moore who boldly traded his best pitching prospect to get Gathright.

Whatever it is, let's hope it continues. The Royals are finally trending upward, allowing us to finally use our green up arrow for the first time all season. While the Royals are still on pace to lose 110 games, if this improvement continues they could possibly, after all, break 100.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 23-50
Expected Record 24-49
Runs Scored 307
Runs Allowed 448
Projected Record 52-110
Pythagorean Record 52-110
Pythagorean Winning% 0.319

Let's go get 'em

Monday, June 26, 2006

Game 73 - 6/24/2006

Brewers 5, Royals 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 22-50
Expected Record 23-49
Runs Scored 301
Runs Allowed 448
Projected Record 50-112
Pythagorean Record 51-111
Pythagorean Winning% 0.311

Let's go get 'em

Game 72 - 6/23/2006

Brewers 7, Royals 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-50
Expected Record 22-49
Runs Scored 295
Runs Allowed 443
Projected Record 48-114
Pythagorean Record 50-112
Pythagorean Winning% 0.307

Let's go get 'em

Game 71 - 6/22/2006

Pirates 7, Royals 15

When the worst team in baseball sweeps the second-worst team in baseball, does it mean anything?

A Moore update: the Royals are 8-6 since Moore officially took over as GM.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-49
Expected Record 22-48
Runs Scored 293
Runs Allowed 436
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 51-111
Pythagorean Winning% 0.311

Let's go get 'em

Thursday, June 22, 2006

Game 70 - 6/21/2006

Pirates 4, Royals 6

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 21-49
Expected Record 21-49
Runs Scored 284
Runs Allowed 433
Projected Record 49-113
Pythagorean Record 49-113
Pythagorean Winning% 0.300

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Game 69 - 6/20/2006

Pirates 6, Royals 10

I never thought it’d happen, but the Royals were able to reach 20 wins before they lost 50. I wasn’t able to watch much of the game tonight, but it looks like the offense – including the lower third of the order - provided a steady attack throughout the game.

Dayton Moore pulled the trigger on his first trade today. He acquired Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez from the Devil Rays in exchange for pitcher JP Howell.

I find it interesting that Moore was willing to trade away a somewhat promising pitching prospect for an outfielder and utility infielder. Gathright will join the Royals tomorrow and will take over center field while David DeJesus moves to left. This of course leaves Emil Brown as the odd man out. Moore’s belief is that pitching is improved when the defense is improved.

In 2004, the Royals moved the fences back 10 feet giving Kauffman Stadium a huge outfield. That same year, they signed Matt Stairs and Juan Gonzalez in a puzzling contradictory move. With the expanded outfield, the obvious need was for speed in the outfield. Apparently Baird didn’t agree as he never seemed interested in acquiring speed. In fact, he spent over a year looking for a power bat corner outfielder. His answer was Terrence Long and Reggie Sanders.

Moore, probably irritated by watching Esteban German and Emil Brown butcher the outfield, determined that the Royals needed a speedy center fielder to try to turn those gappers into outs.

JP Howell was a former first round pick and a pitcher that Baird was reluctant to let go of. I’m sure that Biard was worried that if he traded his prospect, that player would blossom elsewhere while his end of the bargain would be a disappointment. I certainly can’t blame his gun shyness given the result of some of his past moves.

Moore doesn’t have any ties to any players and so isn’t afraid to cut them loose. He looks at pitching as “the currency of baseball” and isn’t afraid to turn pitchers into players he feels will improve the team.

Cortez will report to Omaha and Gathright begins his tenure in KC tomorrow night. Time will tell…


The Bell Curve
Actual Record 20-49
Expected Record 21-48
Runs Scored 278
Runs Allowed 429
Projected Record 47-115
Pythagorean Record 48-114
Pythagorean Winning% 0.295

Let's go get 'em

Monday, June 19, 2006

Breaking 100: A new philosophy

NOTE: My apologies for the delay in updating the last few games. I was out of town for my son's baseball tournament so I was out of touch for a few games. The same will happen this weekend since we are again travelling for another tourney.

Since Dayton Moore’s infamous introductory press conference, the Royals have gone 5-6 for a .455 winning percentage. Small sample, I know, but if they continue at that pace, they could finish 62-100; a much more respectable record than the 116 losses that they are currently chasing, and terribly close to avoiding the dreaded 100 losses.

When changes are made to a baseball team, such as a new manager or general manager, it tends to cause a short burst improvement. Most agree that the players feel more pressure to perform under new management in fear of losing their job. Perhaps this is happening to the Royals.

Moore has made a handful of moves in his short tenure. He hired Dean Taylor to be his assistant GM. Taylor is a well-respected baseball executive, a former GM, and a former Royals employee who returns to the team this week. Taylor’s hiring represents a new level of respectability that Moore has brought to the team.

As for player moves, Moore’s first priority seems to be shoring up the pitching. His first scrap heap acquisitions include pitchers Brandon Duckworth and Todd Wellemeyer. Duckworth has pitched well in his two starts and is sporting a respectable 3.18 ERA. Wellemeyer, a reliever, has also pitched well for the Royals, including three solid innings in Saturday’s game against the Astros in which he gave up just 3 hits and one run. It has been suggested that Wellemeyer may get an opportunity to start, again to help shore up the rotation.

In addressing defense, Moore sent Shane Costa to Omaha after struggling in the outfield.

Moore has denied the many trade rumors involving the Royals veterans. He has said that he is not going to just dump salary because of a poor season. In a true change of philosophy, Moore has indicated that Royals prospects will spend time in AAA Omaha. Moore’s predecessor, Allard Baird, had a nasty habit of promoting young players from AA Wichita to the major league team. In almost every case, those players have proved to not be ready. The most obvious case is that of Ambiorix Burgos. Last season, Burgos was promoted after only a handful of appearances in Wichita. With Mike MacDougal’s injury, Burgos was installed as the closer at the outset of this season. He has struggled in this role, with 6 blown saves in 16 opportunities. The problem with Burgos is that he never had the opportunity to develop another pitch. He has a fantastic split fingered pitch, but his fastball, while thrown in the upper 90’s, tends to be straight. If he can’t get the splitter working, he’s toast. Perhaps another season in the minors would allow Burgos to develop another pitch to make him more effective as a major leaguer. Instead, his confidence must be shaken as he struggles.

Of course, Moore’s philosophy suggests that Royals fans will not see prospects Alex Gordon, Billy Butler or Mitch Maier in Kansas City anytime soon. This is probably for the best. Baird’s practice of using AAA as a holding pen for aged veterans seemed to go against building a young team. Instead of letting a major league player like Aaron Guiel rot in Omaha, why not trade him for a mid-level prospect with a 50-50 chance of developing into a contributor?

It’s obviously too early to determine what kind of effect Moore will have on the Royals. So far, indications point to a slow development approach as opposed to an “on the job training” approach. The previous approach obviously hasn’t worked out, so Royals fans can only hope that something different will produce better results.

Let's go get 'em.

Game 68 - 6/18/2006

Royals 7, Astros 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 19-49
Expected Record 20-48
Runs Scored 268
Runs Allowed 423
Projected Record 46-116
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.286

Let's go get 'em

Game 67 - 6/17/2006

Royals 2, Astros 7

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 18-49
Expected Record 19-48
Runs Scored 261
Runs Allowed 419
Projected Record 44-118
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.279

Let's go get 'em

Game 66 - 6/16/2006

Royals 7, Astros 2

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 18-48
Expected Record 19-47
Runs Scored 259
Runs Allowed 412
Projected Record 45-117
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.283

Let's go get 'em

Game 65 - 6/15/2006

Royals 2, Angels 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 17-48
Expected Record 18-47
Runs Scored 252
Runs Allowed 410
Projected Record 43-119
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.274

Let's go get 'em

Game 64 - 6/14/2006

Royals 4, Angels 3

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 17-47
Expected Record 18-46
Runs Scored 250
Runs Allowed 407
Projected Record 44-118
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.273

Let's go get 'em

Game 63 - 6/13/2006

Royals 3, Angels 4

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-47
Expected Record 18-45
Runs Scored 246
Runs Allowed 404
Projected Record 42-120
Pythagorean Record 44-118
Pythagorean Winning% 0.27

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Game 62 - 6/12/2006

Royals 3, Angles 4

The clock struck midnight for Royals pitcher Bobby Keppel. Keppel was called up from Omaha and pitched well enough in relief to earn a spot in the rotation. Keppel pitched well in his first two starts, but struggled against the Angels. Keppel pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs.

The Angels held onto that 4-0 lead into the seventh, when the Royals finally rallied for three runs. Angel Berroa's RBI hit scored the third run and set the Royals up to continue their rally - that is until he ran into an out. As has been the case so many times this season, Berroa's blunder killed the Royals. I know Buddy Bell doesn't really have anybody to turn to, but shouldn't Berroa be reprimanded somehow?

Newly acquired pitcher Brandon Duckworth gets the start tonight. Duckworth represents Dayton Moore's first player acquisition.

Moore also made a move today, hiring Dean Taylor who joins Muzzy Jackson as Assistant GM. (Jackson takes on the VP of Player Personnel role while Taylor becomes VP of Baseball Operations).

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-46
Expected Record 17-45
Runs Scored 245
Runs Allowed 400
Projected Record 42-120
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.272

Let's go get 'em

Sunday, June 11, 2006

Game 61 - 6/11/2006

Devil Rays 8, Royals 2

We got to see our first triple play today. Kinda. I was keeping score, so when Angel Berroa threw the ball over to third to appeal that Aubry Huff left the base before center fielder David DeJesus caught Russell Branyan's fly ball, I was looking down at my score book, counting Huff's run. But the third base umpire called Huff out, completing a triple play and erasing the run.

With runners on first and third with nobody out, Russell Branyan hit a fly ball to medium depth center field. DeJesus caught the ball (out 1) and made a terrible throw home to try to throw out the tagging Huff. The throw went over catcher Paul Bako's head and Scott Elarton, who was backing up the play, caught it. When the throw went home, Rocko Baldelli tried to go from first to second. Elarton threw a rocket shot to Berroa at second who tagged Badelli out (out 2). Berroa then tossed to third for the appeal play completing the triple play.

The Devil Rays went on to smack 6 home runs in this game, while the Royals' fly balls just seemed to hang up and fall harmlessly into the mitts of Rays. The Rays' six homers tied thier team record, which was also set in KC in 2002.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-44
Expected Record 17-43
Runs Scored 242
Runs Allowed 389
Projected Record 44-118
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.279

Let's go get 'em

Game 60 - 6/10/2006

Devil Rays 9, Royals 5

Reggie Sanders finally stroked his 300th homerun, a meaningless shot in the ninth inning of yet another ugly loss for the Royals. Sanders became only the fifth major leaguer to have 300 homeruns along with 300 stolen bases (the others? Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, Bobby Bonds and Andre Dawson). Forgive us, Reggie, if we Royals fans don't seem very excited. Of your 300 homers, we've seen 8; and of your 302 stolen bases, we've seen 5. And we've noticed that you have more strike outs than games played. If we could trade your milestone for a .500 record, you'd be out of KC in a second.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-43
Expected Record 17-42
Runs Scored 240
Runs Allowed 381
Projected Record 44-118
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.284

Let's go get 'em

Saturday, June 10, 2006

Game 59 - 6/9/2006

Devil Rays 2, Royals 4

Mark Redman had one of his best starts of the season. He struggled in the first, but settled in and pitched 8 innings, giving up just 2 runs.

Meanwhile, the Royals bats came alive in the eighth when Reggie Sanders showed why teams like the Royals would sign him. He had a great at bat, and finally stroked a two run double to right center.

That's two in a row since Moore took over as GM.

In other news, David and Dan Glass made yet another bonehead move. After fielding some tough questions during Dayton Moore's press conference, the Royals revoked the press credentials for two of the journalists who were asking those questions. Rhonda Moss of 610 Sports and Bob Fescoe of 810 WHB (the Royals flagship station) are no longer welcome at Kauffman stadium. Perhaps the Glasses should hire a press secretary so situations like this no longer occur.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 16-42
Expected Record 17-41
Runs Scored 235
Runs Allowed 372
Projected Record 45-117
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.285

Let's go get 'em

Friday, June 09, 2006

Game 58 - 6/8/2006

Rangers 12, Royals 16

The Royals starting rotation is in complete disarray. The Royals asked Kyle Snyder to drive to KC from Omaha to make the start Thursday night. Snyder was a high draft pick for the Royals, but he has struggled with injuries over the years.

Snyder pitched well in the first, and the Royals staked him to a 4-0 lead in the bottom of the first. Ranger's starter Cameron Loe wasn't fooling anybody and the Royals were able to string together several well hit singles to jump to the early lead. The Rangers came back with 3 runs in the second inning.

The real trouble began in the third with two outs when third baseman Mark Teahen booted an easy grounder. Sndyer had struck out the first two batters, but Teahen stayed back on a slow roller, then at the last minute trid to backhand the ball and wasn't able to field it cleanly. After that error, which should have ended the inning, the Rangers came alive. Snyder didn't survive the inning and Jeremy Affldt didn't fare much better. The Rangers scored 8 runs, taking a seemingly insurmountable 11-4 lead.

Surprisingly, the Royals did to the Rangers what had been done to them so many times this season: they came right back. They were able to score four runs in the bottom of the third to pull with four. At this point, the game was already two hours old and we were only through three innings.

The Royals' bats stayed hot throughout the game and they were able to score in the fourth and fifth innings to chip away at the lead. Heading into the bottom of the seventh, the Royals trailed 11-10.

Then the fireworks came. Matt Stairs had the big blow - a towering three run homerun that almost hit a passing 747. The Royals scored 6 and led 16-11. The Rangers were able to score one more, but the Royals held on for a wild victory.


It was quite a beginning to the Dayton Moore era. Moore officially took the reins of the Royals Thursday. He was introduced at a somewhat tense press conference earlier in the day. Instead of focusing on the future and what Moore had in mind for the Royals, the media instead pounded David and Dan Glass about how the firing of Allard Baird took place and whether they meddle in baseball decisions. Moore was probably wonder what he had gotten himself into.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 15-42
Expected Record 16-41
Runs Scored 231
Runs Allowed 370
Projected Record 43-119
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.28

Let's go get 'em

Game 57 - 6/7/2006

Rangers 4, Royals 2

Bobby Keppel looks great. I know, I know... it's a small sample size. But in two starts, Keppel has looked light years ahead of any other Royals starter this season.

Keppel held the Rangers scoreless through 8 innings, and manager Buddy Bell ran him back out there to try to finish the game. I'm sure Keppel was anxious to notch his first complete game shutout.

Keppel gave up a hit to the lead off batter and that was enough for Bell. Keppel could only watch in horror as Bell summoned Ambiorix Burgos from the bullpen. Burgos quickly let Keppel's run score along with one of his own. Seeing Burgos struggling forced Bell to ask Elmer Dessens to try to keep the game tied. He couldn't, letting two more runs score and allowing the Ranger to up for good 4-2.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 14-42
Expected Record 15-41
Runs Scored 215
Runs Allowed 358
Projected Record 41-121
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.265

Let's go get 'em

Game 56 - 6/6/2006

Rangers 6, Royals 2

We certainly didn't expect too much from the Royals after the hellacious road trip they had just endured. The Royals didn't land in Kansas City until 4:00am and were back at the stadium for a 7:10pm game against the Rangers.

Making matters worse, they had to face Kevin Millwood. The Royals made Millood struggle through second inning, but could only score once.

Royals starter Scott Elarton was his typical self: five okay innings giving up 4 runs. But the Royals bats just couldn't get anything going offensively against Millwood.

Mark Teahen is looking much better since he was recalled from Omaha. Teahen was 2-4 and drove in both Royals runs.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 14-41
Expected Record 15-40
Runs Scored 213
Runs Allowed 354
Projected Record 42-120
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.265

Let's go get 'em

Monday, June 05, 2006

Game 55 - 6/5/2006

Royals 1, Mariners 4

Can somebody explain this schedule to me? The Royals left Kansas City on May 25 and played the very next day in New York. After three games against the Yankees, they then flew cross country to play the Oakland A's without a day off. They then flew to Seattle for a weekend series against the Mariners. They played their typical get-away-day afternoon game on Sunday, but then had to stay over another night to play the Mariners on Monday night. The then have to return to KC to play the Rangers, again without an off day.

Mike Wood made a spot start tonight for Denny Bautista - the third Royals started to get fired in the last week. (Affeldt was demoted to bullpen along with Bautista, and Runelvys was demoted to AAA Omaha).

Wood pitched a scoreless game into the sixth, but Jimmy Gobble entered the game and allow Wood's two runners to score. The Royals were able to get one of those runs back in the top of the seventh, but couldn't scratch across anymore.

Joel Peralta entered the game in the eighth and allowed two more runs to score.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 14-40
Expected Record 15-39
Runs Scored 211
Runs Allowed 348
Projected Record 42-120
Pythagorean Record 44-118
Pythagorean Winning% 0.268

Let's go get 'em

Game 54 - 6/4/2006

Royals 9, Mariners 4

The Royals got a rare blowout win Sunday. Every Royal had at least one hit. Mark Teahen, was recalled from Omaha before the Mariners series, had a good game at the place with 2 hits, a double and an RBI.

Mark Redman got his first victory as a Royal while pitching 5 2/3 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs. He struck out two and walked three.

With a win tomorrow, the Royals could finish 5-5 on thier road trip. That would be a huge improvement given their performance on the road thus far this season.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 14-39
Expected Record 15-38
Runs Scored 210
Runs Allowed 344
Projected Record 43-119
Pythagorean Record 44-118
Pythagorean Winning% 0.271

Let's go get 'em

Game 53 - 6/3/2006

Royals 1, Mariners 12

Ugly. Royals pitcher Seth Etherton struggled, lasting only 2 2/3 innings while giving up 7 runs on just 4 hits.

The Royals ran six different pitchers out to the mound. It was one of those games where where nothing went the Royals' way. Etherton has since been sent to Omaha.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 13-39
Expected Record 14-38
Runs Scored 201
Runs Allowed 340
Projected Record 41-121
Pythagorean Record 42-120
Pythagorean Winning% 0.258

Let's go get 'em

Game 52 - 6/2/2006

Royals 0, Mariners 4

Bobby Keppel made his first start as a Royal, and pitched quite well for six innings. The ageless Jamie Moyer pitched for the Mariners and like always, gave the Royals' hitters fits.

The Mariners finally started to figure Keppel out in the sixth, and they broke up the scoreless game with back to back homers by Lopez and Ibanez. Jeremy Affeldt relieved Keppel in his first bullpen duty since being demoted from the starting rotation. He also gave up two runs and Moyer finished the game notching a complete game shut out.

Looking at it positively, Keppel looked good and the Royals have never been able to hit against Moyer.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 13-38
Expected Record 14-37
Runs Scored 200
Runs Allowed 328
Projected Record 42-120
Pythagorean Record 44-118
Pythagorean Winning% 0.271

Let's go get 'em

Friday, June 02, 2006

Breaking 100: Greinke's Quest


About six weeks ago, Zack Greinke returned to Surprise, Arizona to begin extended spring training. He left Royals Spring Training on Feb. 25 to return to Florida to deal with personal issues.

Greinke was drafted in the first round in 2002. He has always been considered strong pitching prospect and has even been called a phenom. When he reached the majors in 2004, he pitched well, showing his ability to locate pitches and changes speeds with authority. He started 24 games and had an ERA of 3.97. In 2005, he struggled (as did many of the Royals) and lost 17 games and posted a 5.80 ERA.

Many believe that Greinke still has the potential to be a top notch starter. The Royals certainly hope so. Greinke's progress has been slow. Tonight, he will test his progress in a game for AA Wichita. He will be limited to about 70 pitches, and the Royals certainly hope for the best.

There is no rush to get Greinke back in Kansas City. This season is pretty much over. He shouldn't arrive in Kansas City until all believe he is ready, and he shouldn't feel pressure to win.

Good luck Zack.

Wednesday, May 31, 2006

Game 51 - 5/31/2006

Royals 0, A's 7

The Royals endured a shutout today in Oakland, but who cares about the game.


Dayton Moore was hired to succeed Allard Baird as GM of the Royals. This is a definite positive sign for Royals fans, as it also marks a sea change for how the Royals organization is run. In coming to KC, Moore has been assured that he will have full control over baseball operations. Moore brings with him a strong track record from his twelve years in Atlanta. The Braves have been an excellent organization in terms of developing talent into strong major league performers, and Dayton Moore is largely credited with that success.

Moore is from Wichita and grew up as a Royals fan. In an interview today, he recalled the glory days of the Royals and expressed a strong desire to return the Royals to that glory.

The only negative thing about today is the way that Allard Baird was treated over the last month. It's too bad that this transition couldn't have gone smoother, but Baird is well respected in the game and should land on his feet very soon.

Because of the potential conflict of interests, Moore will not participate in next week's draft for either team. He will join the Royals on June 8 and Royals Assistant GM Muzzy Jackson will oversee the draft for the Royals.

Click below for more info on the Moore hiring.
royals.com

kcstar.com

foxsports.com

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 13-37
Expected Record 14-36
Runs Scored 200
Runs Allowed 324
Projected Record 43-119
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.275

Let's go get 'em

Breaking 100: Baird Out, Moore In

The Kansas City Star is reporting that Royals GM Allard Baird has been fired to make way for Dayton Moore. Dayton Moore will be the sixth Royals General Manager and will officially begin his tenure after next week's draft. Royals Assistant GM will be interim GM and will oversee the draft for the Royals.

Let's go get 'em.

Game 50 - 5/30/2006

Royals 8, A's 7, 10 innings

It's a streak! The Royals have won two straight and three of their last five games. Not bad. Denny Bautista was staked to an early lead when the Royals jumped on Oakland starter Brad Halsey in the first inning. David DeJesus hit a leadoff homer and the Royals batted around scoring four runs.

Denny Bautista struggled though, giving up eight hits and six runs in 4 1/3 innings. The A's took a 7-6 lead in the fifth inning. The Royals didn't give up and tied the game in the ninth on Matt Stairs' RBI single. In the tenth, the Royals manufactured the go ahead and winning run. Angel Berroa doubled and advanced to third on John Buck's sac bunt. The A's intentionally walked DeJesus and Mark Grudzielanek singled in Berroa for the go ahead run.

Ambiorix Burgos, who is fighting his way back as the closer after struggling, was able to nail down the game in the bottom of the tenth.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 13-37
Expected Record 14-36
Runs Scored 200
Runs Allowed 324
Projected Record 43-119
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.275

Let's go get 'em

Tuesday, May 30, 2006

Sailing in Uncharted Waters

by Chad Metcalf

Wolverines, Colonels, Browns, Cowboys, and Quakers; the 2006 Royals are in rare company. Through 42 games, the Royals had scored 154 runs while allowing 259 runs. That is, they scored 3.67 runs per game while allowing 6.17 runs per game, a difference of -2.5 runs per game. That’s not horrible, right? Sorry fellow Royal hopefuls, it is horrible, very horrible.

Thanks to the handy Lahman database, I compared those numbers with historical seasons of yore. Since 1900, no team has finished a season that lopsided. The 1932 version of the Boston Red Sox finished -2.26, resulting in a 43-111 (.279) record. Before 1900, there were many truly bad teams that could be considered an equal of the Royals:

1884 Detroit Wolverines -2.56 28-84 (.246)
1896 Louisville Colonels -2.57 38-93 (.284)
1896 St. Louis Browns -2.56 40-90 (.305)
1888 KC Cowboys -2.40 43-89 (.326)
1884 Philadelphia Quakers -2.43 39-73 (.345)

If the Royals continue their “blistering” pace, and there is no reason to think that they won’t, the 100 loss season in inevitable. Maybe we should start tracking the chances of a 110 loss season. (Although, I guess that getting rid of Joe “Run-Maker” Mays will help lower the runs allowed rate a little bit).

Although it is ridiculous to compare teams across such different periods, it brings home the point of how amazingly inept our 2006 Royals are. Not since the turn of the century . . . the 20th century that is . . . has a team been able to create such a unique combination of incompetence. The Royals look like they are swinging big loaves of French bread, while the pitchers are tossing up meatballs which are being pounded right through the Swiss cheese defense. That’s right, the Royals combine to form one tasty meatball sub. Just ask Albert Pujols.



SIDENOTE: Speaking of the Cowboys, Bradford Doolittle of The Kansas City Star wrote an interesting story about early Kansas City baseball history on Sunday.

Game 49 - 5/29/2006

Royals 6, A's 4

While the organization waits for word on their fate, the Royals have actually played a little better over the last few games. Newly acquired pitcher Seth Etherton pitched well in his first start as a Royal, though he did labor throwing 100 pitches in five innings. Etherton gave up just 2 runs (1 earned), and the bullpen held on for the win.

The offense put up a well-rounded attack with Emil Brown leading the charge. Brown had three hits and an RBI and five different Royals had RBI's. Shane Costa had 2 doubles and Matt Stairs and Doug Mientkiewicz also had doubles.

Meanwhile, rumors are still floating that Braves Assistant GM Dayton Moore is considering accepting the GM job in Kansas City. Many believe it is nearly a done deal. Royals fans, and Allard Baird, continue to wait...

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 12-37
Expected Record 14-35
Runs Scored 192
Runs Allowed 317
Projected Record 40-122
Pythagorean Record 44-118
Pythagorean Winning% 0.268

Let's go get 'em

Monday, May 29, 2006

Breaking 100: Rumors and Roster Moves

In another classic Royals absurd move, David Glass has apparently offered the General Manager job to Atlanta Braves Assistant GM Dayton Moore. Folks who know of Moore might say that he's the perfect man for the job. Moore is a well respected baseball executive who is said to have excellent talent evaluation skills. What's absurd is the way Glass is handling the situation. Glass is apparently interviewing GM cadidates, but has not yet fired his current General Manager, Allard Baird. Baird says he hasn't heard from Glass and is left twisting in the wind.

At any rate, the reports state that the only sticking point is Moore's insistance that he have complete control of baseball operations. If it's true that Dan Glass has been pulling the strings over the last few years, the demand may be difficult to meet. But surely David Glass is smart enough to see that the status quo has not been working. If somebody like Moore is willing to come to Kansas City, Glass must meet his demands. Hiring Moore would win Glass some favor with Royals fans, and it seems Moore has the talent to turn the organization around.

It was reported that Glass wanted the deal ironed out by the end of the Memorial Day weekend. It is now Monday evening and there has been no news. Optimistic fans are hoping for an announcement on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, the Royals continue to juggle their innefective players. After his disasterous outing, Runelvys Hernandez was sent to AAA Omaha. The Royals acquired pitcher Seth Etherton who will make the start tonight against the A's.

Let's think back to Spring Training. The proposed rotation was Mark Redman, Runelvys Hernandez, Scott Elarton, Zack Grienke, and Joe Mays with Denny Bautista, Jeremy Affeldt and Mike Wood as possible contenders as well. The rotation now is a shambles. Redman has struggled and missed his last start with a sore arm. Hernandez didn't make the team out of Spring Training, and has been sent back to Omaha after pitching poorly. Elarton has been the only consistent pitcher but hasn't gotten any run support. Grienke left camp and is just now working his way back to Kansas City and Joe Mays was released. Affeldt has now pitched poorly in several consecutive starts.

The only good news here is that close Mike MacDougal seems to be getting closer to returning after spending all season on the DL. His return should help the struggling bullpen.

Aaron Guiel found himself back in Omaha after center fielder David DeJesus finally returned to the team. DeJesus has been fighting sore hamstrings since April 18.

Let's go get 'em.

Game 48 - 5/28/2006

Royals 5, Yankees 6

The Yankees jumped on Runelvys Hernandez early, and he didn't get through the first inning. Hernandez gave up 5 runs on 6 hits in just 2/3 of an inning. Rookie Bobby Keppel relieved Hernandez and had his second strong outing. In his two outings, Keppel has pitched 6 2/3 innings, given up 6 hits and just 2 runs. His ERA stands at an impressive 2.70. He's struck out 6 and walked only 2.

The Yankees went to sleep after the first inning, and the Royals kept pecking away at the lead. They couldn't get over the hump when the Mariano Rivera came in and slammed the door shut.

The Royals now have to fly cross-country and will take on the Oakland A's Monday night.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-37
Expected Record 13-35
Runs Scored 186
Runs Allowed 313
Projected Record 38-124
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.26

Let's go get 'em

Game 47 - 5/27/2006

Royals 4, Yankees 15

Yikes. Don't let the momentum of one win stop you from losing ugly. Jeremy Affeldt imploded, giving up 10 runs and 11 hits in his 5 1/3 innings. It another frustrating aspect of the Royals: no consistency. Affledt had a couple of strong outings, but now looks lost on the mound.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-36
Expected Record 13-34
Runs Scored 181
Runs Allowed 307
Projected Record 38-124
Pythagorean Record 42-120
Pythagorean Winning% 0.257

Let's go get 'em

Game 46 - 5/26/2006

Royals 7, Yankees 6

Did Hell freeze over? Seriously. Not only did the Royals beat the Yankees 7-6, but Angel Berroa walked. And he homered. And he didn't commit an error. And Scott Elarton got the win.

In one more signed that this team is cursed, the rains came after the top of the ninth, and the Royals had to wait out a 110 minute rain delay. After the delay, the Yankees got a rally going, but came up just short when Jason Giambi hit into a game-ending double play.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 11-35
Expected Record 13-33
Runs Scored 177
Runs Allowed 292
Projected Record 39-123
Pythagorean Record 44-118
Pythagorean Winning% 0.268

Let's go get 'em

Game 45 - 5/25/2006

Tigers 13, Royals 8

This one hurts. The Royals jumped out to a six run lead in a first inning that included back-to-back-to-back homeruns, but failed to hold on for the win.

Things were looking good as the Royals pounded Tigers starter Mike Moroth in the first inning. Tony Graffanino, then Angel Berroa, then Doug Mientkiewicz homered to give the Royals a seemingly comfortable 6 run lead.

But, in typical fashion, the Royals immediately gave back three of those runs and starter Denny Bautista struggled. The Tigers kept pecking away at the lead and trailed 8-7 going into the ninth inning. But the bullpen exploded and "closer" Elmer Dessens gave up four runs before getting yanked. Andy Sisco entered the game to finish it off giving up one more.

The losing streak stands at 13.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-35
Expected Record 12-33
Runs Scored 170
Runs Allowed 286
Projected Record 36-126
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.261

Let's go get 'em

Game 44 - 5/24/2006

Tigers 6, Royals 3

In another feat of patchwork, the Royals had to work around a pitching rotation in shambles. Mark Redman didn't make the start because of a sore forearm, so lefty reliever Jimmy Gobble got the start. Gobble pitched fairly well, going 4 innings and giving up just 3 hits and 1 run. Gobble's pitch limit forced him out of the game early.

The Royals offense did well, getting 11 hits, but couldn't bunch them together enough to push across the needed runs. They put up three runs in the sixth, but were otherwise shut out.

The losing streak stands at 12.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-34
Expected Record 12-32
Runs Scored 162
Runs Allowed 273
Projected Record 37-125
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.26

Let's go get 'em

Wednesday, May 24, 2006

Game 43 – 5/23/2006

Tigers 8, Royals 5

The Royals were finally able to get to Kenny Rogers, who in the past has had great success against the Royals. Mark Grudzielanek hit two homeruns against Rogers and the Royals were able to jump out to a 4-0 lead.

Runelvys Hernandez got the start and pitched just 5.1 innings. I heard Ryan Lefebvre say on the broadcast that of the 43 games the Royals have played this season, only 26 times has the starter gotten through the sixth inning. I’m curious what the league average is, but at first glance, that doesn’t seem like a very good statistic.

It’s not like there is one particular aspect that is going bad and that can be easily fixed. Elmer Dessens, who earlier this season was unhittable, gave up 3 runs and the lead when he pitched in the eighth.

The Kansas City Star today had a chart comparing the Royals’ last four managers and their longest losing streaks:

Buddy Bell .342
Tony Pena .410
Tony Muser .424
Bob Boone .468

Buddy Bell has managed the Royals to the worst losing streaks in franchise history: 19 games, and 11 games twice this season. When David Glass promised “significant changes” earlier this season, he did indicate that he didn’t think it was a problem with the manager. Most Royals fans would disagree, and the above stats support the argument that Buddy Bell may not be the right guy for this job. Let’s not forget Bell’s ugly exit from his previous managerial jobs. When he left Detroit, he was making comments about how the payroll was too low and that he didn’t want to baby sit a bunch of young kids. What did Bell think he was getting into in Kansas City?


The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-33
Expected Record 12-31
Runs Scored 159
Runs Allowed 267
Projected Record 38-124
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.261

Let's go get 'em

Monday, May 22, 2006

Game 42 - 5/22/2006

Indians 8, Royals 0

We're just past the quarter pole for the season, and the Royals are already a third of the way to 100 losses.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-32
Expected Record 11-31
Runs Scored 154
Runs Allowed 259
Projected Record 39-123
Pythagorean Record 43-119
Pythagorean Winning% 0.261

Let's go get 'em

Breaking 100: Extracting the Riff-Raff

Yesterday's comments by Scott Elarton, Doug Mientkiewicz and Matt Stairs must have resonated. Before today's game, the Royals held a "players only" meeting, and Buddy Bell spoke to the press about roster shake ups. Bell didn't name names, but he did indicate that some players would be on their way out because he felt they didn't care or were too comfortable with losing.

Bell explained that the problem they have is that the Royals just don't have enough depth to just ship guys out, so they are working on a plan to back fill the roster.

Angel Berroa sat out tonight, for the second time in three games, to get some "rest," according to Bell.

All of this talk isn't working though. As I type this, the Royals are down 8-0 in the 6th. Jeremy Affeldt's not pitching well, but the offense isn't doing anything either; they have just one hit. Yet another pitcher that nobody's heard of (Justin Verlander of the Tigers) pitched 3 innings of perfect, no-hit ball against the Royals. Oh, and the Royals have committed an error to complete the trifecta of ineptitude.

Let's go get 'em.

Breaking 100: Not Giving Up Yet...

I just saw Beamer's comment suggesting I give up this effort soon.

The losing is difficult. What can I write that's new and different from game to game? They pitch poorly, the don't hit, they play poor defense, they lose the game. Whether the team has given up on avoiding 100 losses is debatable, but I will continue to write about them.

I found it interesting that some of the veterans who joined the Royals this season have begun to speak out. Scott Elarton made comments suggesting that some of his teammates don't seem to care that the team is losing. "If you don't care, you're not going to get better," Elarton said.

Doug Mientkiewicz also spoke out, saying "There comes a time when you have to look at yourself in the mirror and say, 'I'm tired of being a sideshow.' This is inexcusable, and I'm not excluding myself from the problem."

It's amazing how players who have performed well on other teams seem to drop off the table when they join the Royals. I realize Reggie Sanders is nearing the end of his career, but he didn't struggle like this on other teams. There seems to be an aura of losing here. Where it comes from, I don't know, but I look at it like rust on my old Mustang. Unless it is all removed, it will always be a problem.

David Glass made comments recently saying that his proposed "significant changes" were taking longer to determined than he had originally thought. Perhaps his biggest mistake was to make comments about upcoming changes too soon. Whatever he is doing, let's hope he is rooting out the source of the problem and formulating a real plan to put this team on the right track.

These changes may require a new General Manager or Manager, but according to some veterans, it also requires new players.

Let's go get 'em.

Sunday, May 21, 2006

Game 41 - 5/21/2006

Cardinals 10, Royals 3

11 straight. 6 straight. And now 9 straight. Long losing streaks are becoming the trademark of this team. Even a team of replacement level players should be able to slip a win in there every once in a while. This team seems very comfortable with losing. They must enjoy watching 'Baseball Tonight' and hearing Steve Phillips and Peter Gammons ridicule them. They must enjoy hearing John Kruk wonder how a team that has lost so much can have such a terrible farm system. They must enjoy reading Rob Neyer and Rany Jazerli opine about how they've totally lost interest in the team they once loved so much.

David Glass must be very comfortable with his lot in baseball. Meanwhile, fans are becoming more and more apethetic. They are losing interest.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-31
Expected Record 12-29
Runs Scored 154
Runs Allowed 251
Projected Record 40-122
Pythagorean Record 45-117
Pythagorean Winning% 0.273

Let's go get 'em

Game 40 - 5/20/2006

Cardinals 4, Royals 2

Denny Bautista finally gave the Royals some innings, lasting 6 innings while giving up just one run. Unfortunately, new Cardinals' pitcher Anthonly Reyes also pitched well, stifling the Royals offense.

In an entirely predictable fashion, Pujols smashed a three run homer to give the Cards the lead and the win, taking the second game of the I-70 series.

The Royals are getting very good at creating long losing streaks. This one stands at 8 depressing games.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-30
Expected Record 12-28
Runs Scored 151
Runs Allowed 241
Projected Record 41-121
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.281

Let's go get 'em

Game 39 - 5/19/2006

Cardinals 9, Royals 6

The I-70 series got off to a typical start with the Royals losing 6-9. Things looked good early as the Royals were able to jump out to a quick 5-0 lead on Cy Young Award winner Chris Carpenter.

The Cardinals offense, however, is just too good to keep down for long. Albert Pujols gave his hometown friends and family something to cheer about as he hit a homer to get the ball rolling for the Cards. Of course, the Royals' pitching caved and the offense was never able get back in the game. The losing streak is at 7 games.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-29
Expected Record 12-27
Runs Scored 149
Runs Allowed 237
Projected Record 42-120
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.283

Let's go get 'em

Friday, May 19, 2006

Breaking 100: Rumors Abound

I was listening to the local sports talk radio station this morning on my way to work. They were interviewing a columnist from St. Louis about the upcoming Cardinals/Royals series.

The topic of conversation ultimately turned to the Royals' current troubles. The guest (I wish I could remember his name, but can't) mentioned that he had spoken to Whitey Herzog recently. Whitey, if you recall, was the manager of the Royals during their great run in the 70's. Whitey then became the manager of the Cardinals and was their manager during the '85 World Series against the Royals.

Whitey is a strong-minded (read stubborn) individual who definitely has strong ideas about baseball and how to win baseball games. He knew how to adapt a ball club to its stadium as evidenced by his speedy teams in Kansas City and St. Louis, both of which played in cavernous ballparks with artificial turf.

Anyway, the radio guest said that when he spoke with him, Whitey told him that he wanted to come to Kansas City to try and turn this team around. He said the Whitey had very specific ideas on both how to get a winning team, but also how to gain back the adoration of the fans in Kansas City. He said that Whitey is lobbying for the job in Kansas City and wants to come here to make the Royals a proud franchise again.

Whether you like Whitey or not, you have to feel good that there is somebody out there who wants to take on this challenge. The Royals are a very broken organization. If there is somebody, especially a well respected baseball person, who wants to take on the challenge of fixing it, I say let's get it done.

Thursday, May 18, 2006

Game 38 - 5/18/2006

Royals 5, Indians 6

The pitching has gone completely in the tank. Today, Runelvys Hernandez lasted only 3 1/3 innings giving up 7 hits and 5 runs. He walked 3 and struck out 2.

Things looked good early as the Royals grabbed an early lead scoring once in the first and once in the second. But, since this is the Royals, they then immediately gave up a run in the bottom of the second and lost the lead in the bottom of the third when Hernandez gave up three runs. The Royals went oh-for-the-road for the second time this season, losing all 6 games of this road trip.

The play on the field is not the story for this team, however. The Royals continue to lose day after day, week after week while its owner continues to promise changes. Until the organization is completely revamped, we should expect nothing more. Mr. Glass, we’re waiting…

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-28
Expected Record 11-27
Runs Scored 143
Runs Allowed 228
Projected Record 43-119
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.282

Let's go get 'em

Game 37 - 5/17/2006

Royals 0, Indians 5

According to the trade rumor mill, the Royals have had many chances to trade Jeremy Affeldt. For whatever reason, the Royals didn't pull the trigger. Whether it was Allard Baird or Dan Glass, the Royals decided to hold onto Affeldt.

Affeldt should be a hot commodity. He's a left handed pitcher who can touch the mid-90's with his fast ball and has a devastating curve ball. But injuries and role changes have, apparently, stunted his growth as a dominant pitcher. This season, Affeldt finally convinced the Royals to give him a shot in the rotation. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in his 7 starts. On April 29th, he made a start against the Oakland A’s. The game (and all its stats) was eventually washed out by rain, but he had amassed 6 strike outs in only 3 innings of work. But mostly, Affeldt’s been a disappointment. Affeldt notched a win against the Twins on May 4, but walked 6 and was pitching out of jams most of the night.

The biggest issue with Affeldt this season is walks. Through his seven starts, he’s walked 25 and struck out only 16.

In this game, he walked 6 and struck out only 2. The one pitch he did get over the plate ended up in the right field bleachers – a grand slam to Travis Hafner.

In a continuing trend, the Royals made Jake Westbrook look like Cy Young.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-26
Expected Record 11-25
Runs Scored 138
Runs Allowed 222
Projected Record 45-117
Pythagorean Record 46-116
Pythagorean Winning% 0.278

Let's go get 'em

Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Game 36 - 5/16/2006

Royals 4, Indians 6

What more is there to say? The Royals simply cannot win on the road. For the second consecutive game, the Royals took a lead into the ninth inning only to lose the game.

This time, it was Ambiorix Burgos who again struggled and Andy Sisco gave up the game-winning homerun to Travis Hafner in the bottom of the ninth.

The bigger issue here is the problems with the organization as a whole. The games themselves are immaterial at this point. More important is how owner David Glass is going to fix the mess. After three weeks of promising significant changes, nothing has happened. It's definitely Kansas City, Misery.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-26
Expected Record 11-25
Runs Scored 138
Runs Allowed 217
Projected Record 45-117
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.287

Let's go get 'em

Monday, May 15, 2006

Game 35 - 5/14/2006

Royals 7, Orioles 8

In yet another sign that we're dealing with just a plain ol' bad team, the Royals blew another game where they had the lead and a chance to win.

Closer (term to be used lightly) Ambiorix Burgos could not find the strike zone in the ninth when he came into the game to preserve a 7-4 lead. He couldn't do it and after the O's tied it at 8, Buddy Bell called upon Jimmy Gobble to try to get the game into extra innings. Gobble gave up a single allowing the winning run to score.

Meanwhile David Glass, who said two or three weeks ago that he is frustrated and wouldn't wait and see to see if things got better, still seems to be waiting and seeing. His "immenent changes" are MIA and it's losing as usual for the Royals. Rumor has it Glass had a new GM or two selected, but they turned down the job when Glass refused to take his son Dan Glass out of the decision making process.

It's been said that Dan Glass has vetoed several trades that Allard Baird has tried to pull off contributing to the mess the team is in now. If a new GM is to take this job, he should expect to be soley responsible for decisions.

The Glasses have never been too popular in Kansas City, but these recent events have pushed Royals fans to the edge.

The Bell Curve
Actual Record 10-25
Expected Record 11-24
Runs Scored 134
Runs Allowed 211
Projected Record 47-115
Pythagorean Record 47-115
Pythagorean Winning% 0.287

Let's go get 'em