I wanted to do some research about teams that have slow starts. I was curious to know whether teams that start 2-12 have historically been able to avoid 100 losses. I started doing some research, but since I didn't have all of the data readily available, I decided to turn to the SABR mail list. (If you are interested in baseball research, I suggest you join SABR.) Gerry Myerson chimed in with the following list of teams that started 2-12:
PIT sched 1952 42-112 8
DET sched 2002 55-106 5
NYG sched 1951 98-59 1 NL Pennant
NYY sched 1913 57-94 7
ATL sched 1988 54-106 6
NYG sched 1916 86-66 4
DET sched 1953 60-94 6
ATL sched 1990 65-97 6
SLB sched 1935 65-87 7
ARI sched 1998 65-97 5
BRO sched 1927 65-88 6
BOS sched 1996 85-77 3
DET sched 1959 76-78 4
WSA sched 1962 60-101 10
STL sched 1973 81-81 2
NYM sched 1962 40-120 10
PHA sched 1951 70-84 6
CHW sched 1968 67-95 9
CIN sched 1931 58-96 8
SDP sched 1987 65-97 6
This was helpful. Of that list of 20 teams, only 5 of them lost 100 or more games.
Then Frank Vaccaro then submitted the following information:
A low amount of scheduled games in the regular season meant teams
starting 2-12 from 1871 to 1888 really had little or no chance of losing 100
games. Ten teams prior to 1889 opened the season 2-12: 1872 BKNna, 1872
ECK-na, 1873 NYna, 1874 BALna, 1875 PHI-Cna, 1875 WASna, 1875 BKNna, 1884
ALTu, 1884 PHIu, and 1888 WASn. Most of those teams had final winning
percentages of less than .250 which is comparable to the 40-120 New York
Mets. The 1873 New York Mutuals, in a season tinged with gambling
accusations, finished the season over .500, 29-24.
So, considering all 2-12 starting teams post-1888, of twenty-four teams
in the 2-12 start club (20 clubs posted by Gary Myerson yesterday along with
1889 LOUaa, 1904 PHIn, 1904 WASa, and 1913 CINn) eight have lost 100 games
giving this year's Kansas City club an historically based 33 percent chance
of losing in triple digits.
Good performances after the 2-12 start include the 1951 NYn pennant, a
38-18 finish for the 1996 Red Sox which put them over .500 and final week
eliminations for both the 1916 NYn and the 1973 STLn. The 1959 DETa could
have been the fifth to finish at or above .500, but on the final day of the
season rookie pitcher Bob Bruce lost in his MLB debut. The bell curve of the
final winning percentages for the post-1888 teams is as follows:
.600- 1951 NYn
.550- 1916 NYn
.500- 1996 BOSa 1973 STLn
.450- 1959 DETa 1951 PHIa
.400- 1935 STLa 1927 BKNn 1913 CINn 1968 CHIa 1987 SDn 1990 ATLn 1998 ARZn
.350- 1953 DETa 1913 NYa 1931 CINn 1962 WASa
.300- 1904 PHIn 2002 DETa 1988 ATLn
.250- 1952 PITn 1904 WASa 1962 NYn
.200-
.150- 1889 LOUaa
Anyway, Kansas City is now 2-13 and hosts Cleveland at 7:00 pm tonight.
They can become either the 54th team to be 3-13 or the 21st team to go 2-14.
Interestingly, the 39 post-1888 teams that opened 3-13 finished the season
with an aggregate average won loss percentage of .371. The 8 post-1888 teams
that opened the year 2-14 finished the year with an aggregate average won
loss percentage of .420. So, historically, if the Royals lose today, they're
in better company. (Either things like this happen with an eight team sample
size, or teams make more drastic changes due to poorer starts.)
(For this final stat I did not include four "non-qualifying teams"
teams: the 1981 CHIn who were 2-14 in the first half, and three 3-13 teams:
the second halvers 1892 STLn and 1981 SDn, and the 1890 BKNaa team which
disbanded mid-year.)
This information is helpful. It looks like, based on the Royals' 2-12 start, they still had a 66% chance of avoiding 100 losses. And given their new winning streak, things should be looking up even more today.
Let's go get 'em.
No comments:
Post a Comment